Manifold Creator
Ryan
@Ryannn
Markets by Ryan
Who will be Trump's running mate if he is the Republican nominee?
$75K124 tradersResolved
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Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?
$36K50 tradersResolved
55%
Will at least one US state print ballots without listing Donald Trump due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
$21K98 tradersResolved
4%
If Ilya Sutskever takes on a new role in 2024, where will it be?
$10K50 tradersResolved
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Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
$4K21 tradersResolved
11%
Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
$3K17 tradersResolved
14%
Will Neel Nanda's or Lee Sharkey's SERI MATS streams (Summer 2023) produce a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication?
$2K19 tradersclosed
25%
Why was Sam Altman fired by OpenAI?
$2K17 tradersResolved
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Have VERSES and Karl Friston achieved a "breakthrough in active inference" that beats GPT-4 on BIG-bench before 2025?
$1K15 tradersResolved
8%
Will Jeffrey Ladish's SERI MATS stream (Summer 2023) discover a zero-day vulnerability in commercial software?
$68814 tradersResolved
22%
Will the Navigation Fund make over $10M of grants to AI safety causes in 2024?
$2686 tradersResolved
12%
If Sam Altman returns as OpenAI CEO before 2024, what will have been the primary cause?
$23711 tradersResolved
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What percentage of MATS Summer 2023 scholars will publish their results as ICLR or AAAI conference publications?
$1595 tradersclosed
23%
Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?
$825 tradersclosed
68%
What fraction of scholars should MATS select per research track for Summer 2024?
$776 tradersResolved
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