Manifold Creator
Ross Taylor
@RossTaylor
Markets by Ross Taylor
Will Luke Littler win the World Darts Championship 2025?
$3K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ruben Amorim be manager of Manchester United on Christmas Day 2025?
$2K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ruud van Nistelrooy be manager of Manchester United on Christmas Day 2024?
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will an open model with comparable results to GPT-4 on MMLU be released by the end of July 2024?
$6788 tradersResolved
93%
Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027?
$65917 tradersopen
13%
Will Donald Trump pardon Vince McMahon?
$5769 tradersopen
18%
Will Vince McMahon appear in-person on WWE television inside the ring again?
$5584 tradersopen
5%
OpenAI or Anthropic will sponsor a English Premier League football team before the start of 2028/2029 season
$3137 tradersopen
23%
What will be the accuracy on the MATH benchmark by the end of 2023?
$1915 tradersResolved
84%
Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
$1665 tradersopen
12%
Will Nickmercs, TimTheTatman or Dr Disrespect return to play Warzone 2 by the end of 2023?
$1001 tradersResolved
10%
Will Gail’s bakery be used as a pejorative term by a UK MP before 2028?
$702 tradersopen
60%
In what year will a majority (50%+) of Republicans see climate change as a major threat?
$252 tradersopen
20%