Manifold Creator
Robin Green
@RobinGreen
Markets by Robin Green
Will any American university get in trouble for an affirmative action policy by 2033?
$17K18 tradersResolved
100%
Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024?
$6K35 tradersResolved
90%
Will OpenAI get into serious legal trouble for something related to privacy in Europe?
$5K31 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be more professional programmers at the end of 2024 than there were in 2023?
$5K31 tradersResolved
90%
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
$5K41 tradersopen
48%
Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?
$4K30 tradersopen
94%
Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?
$3K77 tradersopen
—
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
$3K73 tradersopen
68%
Will production, distribution or possession of deepfake porn be specifically made a crime by the end of 2023?
$2K42 tradersResolved
20%
Will an AI get elected as a politician by 2050?
$2K54 tradersopen
32%
Will I be convinced that no-fault divorce is good actually by the end of 2023?
$2K45 tradersResolved
16%
Will any Effective Altruist be exposed as a neo-Nazi by the end of 2023?
$2K26 tradersResolved
5%
Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?
$1K35 tradersclosed
82%
Will the half-potato diet community trial show statistically-significant evidence of effectiveness (i.e. weight loss)?
$1K7 tradersResolved
45%
Will we discover aliens before AGI?
$1K32 tradersopen
11%
Will any prominent Notkilleveryoneists switch sides to e/acc after learning more about machine learning R&D?
$1K7 tradersopen
1%
In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?
$1K34 tradersopen
30%
Will there be a startup with zero human employees in 2026?
$91724 tradersopen
25%
Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?
$89523 tradersopen
62%
Will women lower their standards for men on average by 2033?
$80618 tradersopen
20%
Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?
$79917 tradersopen
85%
Will a large language model substantially assist in the creation of an app with at least $5,000 in revenue in 2023?
$64422 tradersResolved
90%
By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?
$62616 tradersopen
75%
Will Destiny get cancelled for "platforming the alt-right"?
$6067 tradersResolved
6%
Is obesity primarily mediated by deficiencies in GABA, GABA transmission and/or GABA reception?
$49911 tradersopen
26%
Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?
$45510 tradersopen
87%
Is there a news blackout regarding the toxic chemical train derailment in Ohio?
$43912 tradersResolved
14%
Will I come to believe that Eliezer Yudkowsky is substantially wrong about AGI being an X-risk?
$4309 tradersResolved
8%
Will trimethylglycine/betaine supplementation increase my productivity?
$40810 tradersResolved
21%
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?
$4047 tradersopen
81%
Will drinking milk cure my sleep maintenance insomnia?
$40018 tradersclosed
10%
By 2033 will we have seen a period of at least 24 months where there are no smart contract exploits "stealing" crypto?
$3788 tradersopen
42%
Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?
$36117 tradersopen
74%
Which will come first, criminal liability for AIs, or voting rights in national elections for AIs?
$3559 tradersopen
—
Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033?
$34514 tradersopen
77%
Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?
$32918 tradersopen
75%
Humanoid robot attends theatre performance to allow remote viewing by December 31, 2025
$3215 tradersResolved
6%
Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?
$2608 tradersopen
53%
Jobs involving which post-1989 programming language will command the highest average salary in 2023?
$25910 tradersResolved
—
Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music?
$2583 tradersResolved
39%