Manifold Creator
Reality Quotient
@RealityQuotient
Markets by Reality Quotient
An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027
$32K89 tradersopen
16%
Will an AI account on Instagram have more than 1M followers by the end of 2023?
$27K53 tradersResolved
2%
Will Bing integrate ChatGPT from OpenAI before the end of 2023'Q1?
$18K136 tradersResolved
91%
Will OpenAI raise $10B or more in 2023?
$14K18 tradersResolved
99%
Will an AI account on Instagram have more than 100k followers by the end of June 2023?
$13K17 tradersResolved
100%
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
$11K113 tradersopen
26%
A defendant in a class I or II felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023
$10K82 tradersResolved
3%
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
$10K46 tradersResolved
5%
An AI tool will be used in crimes to steal $100M or more, and be reported by a major news outlet before the end of 2023
$8K70 tradersResolved
6%
Will GPT-4 per-token price decrease by the end of Q3'2023?
$8K32 tradersResolved
1%
A Netflix live-action show will be hosted or have a main character that is AI Generated, with no actor involved, before the end of 2025
$6K21 tradersclosed
2%
Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?
$4K44 tradersopen
50%
AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)
$3K53 tradersopen
8%
Will Bing have a ChatBot integrated into search before Google?
$3K22 tradersResolved
98%
A defendant in a felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023
$3K55 tradersResolved
38%
Will Manifold Markets add a feature to change your default betting amount before the end of Q1 2023?
$3K15 tradersResolved
2%
Will GPT-4 per-token price decrease by the end of Q4'2023?
$3K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will a MAAMA (Formerly FAANG) company post a job posting for a Prompt Engineer before the end of 2023?
$2K39 tradersResolved
73%
A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025
$2K23 tradersResolved
11%
Will Manifold add a feature to enable users (e.g. Market Creators, etc.) to curate Related Markets before the end of June 2023?
$2K13 tradersResolved
2%
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
$2K35 tradersopen
15%
Is Integer Factorization NP-Complete?
$1K14 tradersopen
10%
Will Manifold create a feature to filter across a join of all of your subscribed groups before the end of 2023? (+50 liquidity subsidy)
$1K10 tradersResolved
5%
Will Manifold Markets add a warning that limit orders will trigger on your own trades either sale or purchase in a market before 2023'H2?
$1K8 tradersResolved
2%
Will Microsoft resolve it's "unhinged" ChatBot problem by April 1st, 2023?
$1K9 tradersResolved
98%
Is 2023 the year the last Blockbuster closes?
$1K12 tradersResolved
4%
Will the FP8 numeric format be considered a required feature for AI frameworks and accelerator hardware before the end of 2024?
$39315 tradersclosed
47%
Will the total amount invested in private markets in 2023 exceed the total in 2022?
$3226 tradersResolved
12%
What focus will the first AI startup in 2023 to announce a $100M+ fundraise have?
$2386 tradersResolved
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Will GPT-4 per-token price decrease by the end of Q2'2023?
$1357 tradersResolved
26%
The TSA or U.S. Border Security will experiment with automating their ID checks / Q&A using voice synthesis and speech recognition before the end of 2026
$1299 tradersopen
24%
When will AI generated art first be exhibited in one of the 20 most prestigious modern art museums?
$01 tradersResolved
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