Manifold Creator
Radicalia
@Radicalia
Markets by Radicalia
Will University of Michigan win the College Football Playoff National Championship for 2023-24?
$35K68 tradersResolved
100%
Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024?
$31K46 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump plead guilty or be found guilty before Election Day ‘24?
$25K80 tradersResolved
99%
Will Trump be indicted again before Election Day 2024?
$19K17 tradersResolved
100%
Will Taylor Swift attend a Travis Kelce game during the 2024-25 NFL season?
$14K31 tradersResolved
99%
Will Joe Biden be alive at noon ET on 1/20/25?
$12K29 tradersResolved
99%
When will the Detroit Lions next make the playoffs?
$7K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Lions and Chiefs play an NFL game in Germany in the 2023-24 regular season?
$7K13 tradersResolved
0%
Will Dean Preston be re-elected to the SF Board of Supervisors in 2024?
$5K28 tradersResolved
24%
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Tim Scott’s % of popular vote.
$4K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will Russell Cook (Hardest Geezer) complete Project Africa on time?
$4K8 tradersResolved
0%
Will I need to take time off from work after my next blood donation?
$2K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will I still think Cold-Eeze (or similar) zinc lozenges are worth taking for a common cold at the end of 2024?
$2K19 tradersResolved
85%
Will I need to take antibiotics for an infection post-blood donation?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will my Manifold calibration be A or better on 2/4/24 at noon ET?
$2K17 tradersResolved
3%
Will East Timor be a full ASEAN member before 2026?
$2K11 tradersclosed
92%
Will Manifold allow authors of binary questions to change the opening price?
$2K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will eligibility for the 2023 COVID vaccine be limited to higher-risk groups?
$2K10 tradersResolved
2%
Will I develop a cold by end of week?
$2K15 tradersResolved
3%
What percent of 100M people will die from H5N1 by end of 2025?
$1K19 tradersclosed
3%
Will I promote to Diamond this season?
$1K11 tradersResolved
98%
Will $VT close the year at or above $100.00 per share?
$1K14 tradersResolved
96%
Will I demote to Platinum this season?
$1K10 tradersResolved
2%
If I wear an Apple Watch daily for a month, will I develop a rash?
$1K16 tradersResolved
3%
Will a 1Password breach cause this other market to resolve YES?
$1K10 tradersResolved
3%
Where will season 3 of White Lotus be set?
$9599 tradersResolved
—
What will the tipping-point state be in the 2024 POTUS election?
$93328 tradersResolved
—
Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?
$88619 tradersopen
72%
Will Geowizard complete a Gold straight line mission across Wales on his fourth attempt?
$8356 tradersResolved
98%
Will Oakland CA homicide rates fall from 2022-2023?
$83016 tradersResolved
18%
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Ramaswamy’s % of popular vote.
$70510 tradersResolved
8%
Will there be a Tornado Warning in Orlando on 12/15?
$6038 tradersResolved
5%
Will a court find Afroman liable to the police who raided his house by 2025?
$4007 tradersResolved
5%
Will Donald Trump complete the system of German Idealism before his death?
$3958 tradersopen
4%
Will I still think that creatine supplementation is worthwhile for my cognitive performance at the end of 2024?
$38416 tradersResolved
70%
Who shot Matt Newman?
$3713 tradersclosed
—
What percentage of my normal healthiness level will I feel on Saturday morning?
$36010 tradersResolved
90%
Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?
$33214 tradersopen
63%
Will Samotsvety’s forecast on Moore v. Harper resolve positively, in Samotsvety’s judgment?
$3315 tradersResolved
4%
Will enforcement of the TN drag ban be enjoined as unconstitutional as of 1/1/25?
$3109 tradersResolved
89%