Manifold Creator
Lee Bousfield
@PlasmaPower
Markets by Lee Bousfield
Will there be a second Manifold Prize Drawing in 2026?
$13K35 tradersResolved
99%
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
$11K90 tradersopen
73%
Will I get a bug bounty payout from Manifold for my vuln?
$2K4 tradersResolved
99%
Will Florida's "bathroom bill" still be in effect at the end of 2024?
$68311 tradersResolved
91%
When will Waymo be publicly available in Nashville?
$6296 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold take away my black hat within a week?
$31414 tradersResolved
13%
Will a first preimage attack on md5 be performed by the end of 2027?
$3026 tradersopen
11%
Will Waymo still have serious problems with flooded streets in 2027?
$2975 tradersopen
17%
Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?
$18910 tradersResolved
79%