Manifold Creator
Paul
@Paulf4db
Markets by Paul
Yet another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
$12K23 tradersResolved
1%
Another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
$12K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nate Silver predict the election better than 538, according to a statistical analysis such as a Brier score?
$12K64 tradersResolved
91%
Will someone post a "nice" market summary (69-69-69-69) before February?
$11K22 tradersResolved
99%
If Trump gets enough votes to win the nomination and is also convicted, will he still be the candidate on election day?
$10K21 tradersResolved
99%
Will the "Blaze Star" (T Coronae Borealis) go nova during Blazing Swan 2025?
$10K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will Mr. Bungle be joined on stage by either Bär McKinnon or Danny Heifetz at their Melbourne show?
$3K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will my virtual biased coin come up heads? Send mana to do a test flip.
$2K28 tradersResolved
39%
Conditional on Gaza being controlled by Hamas, will Palestine's Civil Liberties Index in 2024 be higher than 2022?
$2K8 tradersResolved
5%
Will my coin flip market converge to the optimal probability, given the information available?
$1K13 tradersResolved
4%
Will a Manifold user donate their kidney to me?
$77914 tradersopen
6%
Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?
$3467 tradersopen
39%
Is The Legend Of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom "arguably Turing complete" (at least as much as Tears of the Kingdom)?
$3105 tradersResolved
21%
Can an integral of 1/(e^x - x) be expressed in terms of known special functions? (take 2)
$2723 tradersResolved
6%
Can an integral of 1/(e^x - x) be expressed in terms of known special functions?
$2673 tradersResolved
90%
Conditional on Gaza being controlled by Israel, will Palestine's Civil Liberties Index in 2024 be higher than 2022?
$404 tradersResolved
47%