Manifold Creator
Paul
@Paul
Markets by Paul
By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)
$370K117 tradersopen
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Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
$30K140 tradersResolved
2%
Will Google create a folding smartphone by 2025?
$22K30 tradersResolved
100%
Apple adopts RCS in iOS Messages app by end of 2024
$8K26 tradersResolved
98%
What will happen to this market? [Add responses]
$7K25 tradersclosed
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Will Google layoff 5% or more of engineering FTEs by end of 2023?
$7K44 tradersResolved
94%
Will Tyler1 hit 2000 Elo in chess.com by 2025?
$5K18 tradersResolved
4%
When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)
$4K23 tradersopen
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Microsoft releases a linux distro by 2025
$4K32 tradersResolved
11%
Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?
$3K17 tradersopen
86%
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
$3K24 tradersopen
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Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?
$3K36 tradersResolved
81%
Will Google have two or more waves of layoffs in 2024?
$2K21 tradersResolved
77%
Will my YouTube channel have 150 subscribers by 2024?
$2K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold have a >6h outage by 2024?
$2K16 tradersResolved
3%
Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026?
$1K29 tradersResolved
57%
Will Stripe IPO by 2024?
$1K21 tradersResolved
9%
Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030?
$1K35 tradersopen
56%
Will the average California gas price exceed $8 by 2025?
$1K6 tradersResolved
2%
Will more than $1B of infrastructure be destroyed by an asteroid impact by 2030?
$1K12 tradersopen
4%
Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030?
$98825 tradersopen
10%
Will sugar be considered as unhealthy as plastic food containers by 2030?
$89825 tradersopen
79%
What will be the most important medical development in the 2020s?
$78525 tradersopen
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Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?
$64721 tradersopen
50%
By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars?
$62129 tradersopen
36%
Will we be able to predict earthquakes by 2035?
$61915 tradersopen
32%
By 2030, will any US company be more valuable than the (other) top 5 tech companies combined?
$48211 tradersopen
15%
Will both of my kids have absolute pitch by 2024?
$33016 tradersResolved
56%
Will I create 50 manifold markets by 2023?
$2564 tradersResolved
7%
Will the set of the 2023 top 5 causes of death be different by 2030? (In USA)
$1733 tradersopen
53%
In Jan. 2024, what % will believe that "Manifold.markets will be shut down by 2030"?
$15212 tradersResolved
34%
Will Stevia be considered unhealthy by 2030?
$1516 tradersopen
34%
Will I get promoted to L6 by 2025?
$1456 tradersResolved
25%
Will space travel still primarily be using chemical propulsion rockets by 2060?
$987 tradersopen
42%
How many minutes for the fastest Hollow Knight: Silksong any% no major glitches speedrun at the end of 2024?
$857 tradersResolved
71%
Will I determine that recording my dreams had some tangible benefit to my life?
$688 tradersResolved
55%
Will Manifold.markets be up in 2030?
$034 tradersResolved
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