Manifold Creator
Optimization Process
@OptimizationProcess
Markets by Optimization Process
Errors in "Quantum without complication"
$23K4 tradersResolved
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When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?
$15K84 tradersopen
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If I'm voluntarily unemployed for much of the next 6mo, will I feel aimless after 2mo?
$7K42 tradersResolved
55%
Will it rain in Seattle on Sept 28?
$5K9 tradersResolved
31%
How many people will mention this market to me at Manifest?
$5K14 tradersResolved
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How many people will attend my birthday party?
$4K11 tradersResolved
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Will Yudkowsky non-secretly write a >5k-word non-Glow fic by 2025-01-01?
$3K15 tradersResolved
93%
If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?
$3K26 tradersResolved
44%
Will NASA's reported 2024 avg temperature be closer to 2023's than 2022's?
$2K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will "The Prodigal Sorceress" update from 2024 July-Sept?
$2K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will Spencer be W-2 unemployed for at least three more months?
$2K10 tradersResolved
98%
When&how will I die in Jan 2023?
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Will Spencer live in his current house through the end of the year?
$1K11 tradersResolved
3%
Will I meditate on 27 of the next 30 days?
$97418 tradersResolved
94%
Will Spencer keep all 10 of his fingers for the whole year?
$95015 tradersResolved
98%
Will I feel any raindrops as I bike the perimeter of Lake Washington on Oct 28?
$92410 tradersResolved
7%
In Mad Investor Chaos, is day 90 real?
$8604 tradersResolved
97%
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
$78215 tradersopen
15%
Will Weights and Biases IPO before 2025-01-01?
$7267 tradersResolved
2%
Experiment: how much will morning exercise increase my general alertness/smartness?
$66721 tradersResolved
60%
Will there be over 100,000 global malaria deaths in [each of 2028..2034]?
$6558 tradersopen
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Will the next person I see wearing an "I'm in a polycule with Aella" garment be confident they are?
$5922 tradersResolved
28%
Will I create >30 valuable Manifold markets on different days before November?
$5926 tradersResolved
100%
What day will I die in Jan 2023?
$5001 tradersResolved
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[3k subsidy] What software-development tools will I go ga-ga over?
$47815 tradersResolved
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Will I, a man in the US, successfully get an HPV test in the next month?
$3986 tradersResolved
64%
How many new units of housing will be permitted in Seattle in 2023?
$3805 tradersResolved
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By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?
$3769 tradersopen
91%
[2k subsidy] Which of these books will I find thought-provoking?
$35312 tradersResolved
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Will we win this game of Shipwreck Arcana?
$2826 tradersResolved
28%
Will I get injured in the next year if I start lifting weights with[/out] professional guidance?
$2586 tradersResolved
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If I carpet my room in astroturf, will I regret it in 2yr / when I move?
$2279 tradersResolved
52%
Will Aella's "How To Be Good At Sex" series contain anything useful for me?
$21513 tradersResolved
64%
Will Aella report getting a cavity before 2026-01-01?
$2046 tradersResolved
19%
If I go to therapy for no particular reason, will I think it was good after 3mo?
$1879 tradersResolved
25%
Will I be satisfied with my Slap Chop (knockoff)?
$1708 tradersResolved
38%
test market please ignore
$1652 tradersResolved
50%
Will my simulation clearly support the Greater Male Variability Hypothesis?
$15610 tradersResolved
82%
Will Sammy beat Kurt in Smash?
$1142 tradersResolved
50%
How many vertical miles will Spencer hike in the next year?
$1054 tradersResolved
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