Manifold Creator
Noah
@Noah1
Markets by Noah
Will the Trump immunity case be decided unanimously by the Supreme Court?
$22K73 tradersResolved
1%
What will happen with Elon Musk's lawsuit against Open AI for allegedly violating their non-profit mission?
$16K105 tradersResolved
—
Will Nikki Haley drop out before the Michigan Primary? (February 27)
$15K87 tradersResolved
1%
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July?
$13K92 tradersResolved
3%
Will a poll show Trump with above 90% national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February?
$13K31 tradersResolved
0%
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of May?
$13K90 tradersResolved
3%
Will RFK Jr. be the Libertarian Party presidential nominee?
$9K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US pass military aid for Israel by the end of March 2024?
$9K60 tradersResolved
92%
Will France deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
$8K25 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Espionage Act charges against Julian Assange be dropped by the Biden Administration in 2024?
$8K23 tradersResolved
2%
Will a poll show Trump with above 85% national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February?
$6K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will Biden publicly call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza by the end of 2024? [w/o conditions on Hamas]
$6K24 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Supreme Court rule unanimously to keep trump on the CO primary ballot?
$6K62 tradersResolved
90%
Will Trump appear on Illinois' primary ballot?
$6K15 tradersResolved
99%
If the Supreme Court rules Trump is allowed on the CO Primary ballot, will Nikki Haley drop out within a week?
$5K29 tradersResolved
99%
Will another Russian military asset violate Polish airspace by the end of 2024?
$5K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will a NATO country shoot down a Russian military asset by end of 2024?
$5K34 tradersResolved
4%
Will I get a bingo on my 2024 Events Bingo sheet?
$4K20 tradersResolved
5%
Will Argentina join NATO by the end of the year?
$4K25 tradersResolved
4%
Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?
$4K26 tradersopen
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Will Poland shoot down a Russian military asset by end of 2024?
$4K34 tradersResolved
6%
Will Elon Musk's lawsuit against Open AI be dismissed with prejudice?
$3K19 tradersResolved
5%
Will "Ceasefire" get more than 1% of the popular vote in the New Hampshire primary?
$3K38 tradersResolved
41%
Will Poland deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
$3K21 tradersResolved
3%
Will Maine join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact this year?
$3K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will Iran or Israel declare war on the other within a month?
$2K14 tradersResolved
1%
Was the Francis Scott Key Bridge deliberately hit by the Dali cargo ship?
$2K20 tradersResolved
3%
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of September?
$2K22 tradersResolved
27%
Will Mr. Beast run for President of the United States before EOY 2040?
$2K33 tradersopen
23%
Will Democrats break Republican control of the Ohio Supreme Court in the November elections.
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anna's Archive be inaccessible at the end of the year?
$2K18 tradersResolved
8%
In the Elon Musk vs. Open AI lawsuit, will the court order Open AI open source any of their models?
$1K24 tradersResolved
6%
Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?
$1K32 tradersopen
11%
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
$1K11 tradersopen
2%
Will the US pass a bill focused on stopping internet piracy by the end of 2025?
$1K21 tradersResolved
10%
Will anyone related to any Trump trial be killed for political motivations related to the trial in 2024?
$1K22 tradersResolved
5%
Will Ohio be temporally enjoined from enforcing their gender-affirming care ban for minors?
$1K10 tradersResolved
3%
Will a space trash laser be used to clean orbital debris before 2030?
$1K21 tradersopen
22%
Will Ohio's gender-affirming care ban for minors be in effect by the end of the year?
$1K10 tradersResolved
97%
Will SCOTUS hear a Third Amendment case by EOY 2030?
$1K13 tradersopen
8%