Manifold Creator
Quinn
@Nightsquared
Markets by Quinn
Eliminator game: which options will be the last to remain?
$2.9M293 tradersResolved
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Who will win the 2024 World Blitz Chess Championship?
$387K88 tradersResolved
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Who will win the 2024 World Rapid Chess Championship?
$79K38 tradersResolved
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Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
$39K73 tradersResolved
100%
What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?
$25K49 tradersclosed
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Who/What will publicly acknowledge Jimmy Carter's 100th birthday between now and Oct 15th?
$22K29 tradersResolved
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How many open sweepstakes markets will exist at the end of September?
$21K26 tradersResolved
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Will ChatGPT make a profit on Manifold?
$21K118 tradersResolved
2%
Who will be in November's Masters League?
$21K21 tradersResolved
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Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?
$19K19 tradersclosed
10%
Will Kamala Harris poll below +1.5 nationally in Nate Silver's polling average 2 weeks from now?
$15K38 tradersResolved
1%
Will someone other than Harris or Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
$15K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will Pia Cramling win her match against Levy Rozman?
$13K25 tradersResolved
1%
On which days will real-money betting on Manifold be possible for a majority of American adults?
$13K25 tradersopen
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Will the Nate Silver $100,000 bet actually happen?
$12K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will Republicans pass legislation restricting access to VPNs this year?
$12K28 tradersclosed
1%
Will I make a profit on the Canada PM election market and Tumbles loan?
$12K17 tradersResolved
99%
How much will Dem's presidential win probability change a week after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the race?
$11K36 tradersResolved
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Will Kamala Harris flip a state but not win North Carolina?
$11K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump win a solid blue state?
$11K25 tradersResolved
1%
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
$9K20 tradersopen
6%
Will ChatGPT make a profit after all markets have resolved?
$9K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will Pat Gelsinger be removed or announce he is stepping down as Intel CEO by the end of 2024?
$8K6 tradersResolved
99%
According to 538's polling average, which states will Harris lead in on October 1st?
$8K25 tradersResolved
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Who will be the highest-rated chess player at the end of 2026?
$8K21 tradersopen
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Will Manifold think Trump's threat to democracy was overblown at the end of 2025?
$6K72 tradersclosed
4%
When will the next crystal market be created?
$6K11 tradersResolved
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Will any of Dockside Extortionist, Mana Crypt, or Jeweled Lotus be worth ~75% less than their pre-ban prices in 2 weeks?
$6K11 tradersResolved
5%
Will Levy Rozman have a publicized coaching session with Hans Neimann before 2026?
$5K14 tradersclosed
3%
Will Kamala Harris state a flip?
$5K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will FIDE prohibit any freestyle chess participants from participating in the 2026 World Championship cycle?
$5K13 tradersopen
4%
Will Kamala Harris flip a state but lose the election?
$3K21 tradersResolved
10%
In which year will the next battle be released in MTG?
$3K6 tradersopen
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Will there be any changes to the MTG Commander ban list before 2025?
$2K5 tradersResolved
11%
Will I use my 3d printer within a week?
$2K13 tradersResolved
11%
Will Democrats flip any governorships?
$2K16 tradersResolved
6%
Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)
$2K24 tradersopen
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Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
$2K42 tradersResolved
98%
Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?
$2K16 tradersResolved
6%
Is someone living today on loop until this market resolves YES?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%