Manifold Creator
Nicholas Weininger
@NicholasWeininger
Markets by Nicholas Weininger
Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be freed into the US at any point in 2025?
$84K129 tradersResolved
96%
How many days of bad (>150 AQI) air will SF suffer in 2026?
$20K10 tradersopen
—
How long will the 2026 San Francisco teachers' strike last?
$15K19 tradersResolved
—
Will the ICE deployment in Minnesota be substantially reduced by June 1, 2026?
$14K40 tradersResolved
95%
In 2024, will at least 100 US military personnel be killed by enemy action in the Middle East?
$13K20 tradersResolved
1%
How many Americans will die as a result of commercial air travel accidents in 2025?
$7K25 tradersResolved
—
Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?
$5K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?
$5K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2030 be less than 1.5 million?
$5K26 tradersopen
39%
How many naturalized US citizens will be denaturalized between February 1, 2025 and February 1, 2029?
$4K12 tradersopen
—
Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?
$4K20 tradersopen
95%
Will the proposed California wealth tax take substantive effect?
$4K23 tradersopen
21%
Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?
$4K14 tradersResolved
88%
Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
$2K20 tradersopen
10%
Will Lisa Cook resign from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025?
$2K20 tradersResolved
2%
At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
$2K14 tradersopen
57%
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
$2K16 tradersopen
36%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka AOC) be charged with a federal crime by February 1, 2029?
$1K14 tradersopen
19%
How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025?
$1K8 tradersResolved
—
Will Canada close its border with the US to civilian travel due to a pandemic disease by Feb 1, 2029?
$1K8 tradersopen
17%
Will cancellations at CDG exceed 100/day average over the week of June 7-13?
$1K8 tradersopen
25%
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
$9405 tradersopen
35%
Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?
$92524 tradersResolved
8%
Will US federal research spending be less than 0.25% of GDP in 2025?
$8273 tradersResolved
23%
US Senate confirms Emil Bove to federal judgeship in 2025?
$78610 tradersResolved
70%
Will at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
$7004 tradersopen
26%
Will SCOTUS vote to overturn Mississippi's mail-in voting law?
$64310 tradersopen
63%
Will the 120th Congress refuse to seat any members due to a redistricting related dispute?
$6372 tradersopen
30%
Will the author of the ACX review "Dating Men in the Bay Area" admit to being a current or former metamour of Aella?
$48914 tradersResolved
5%
Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone?
$4118 tradersopen
34%
Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?
$3502 tradersopen
35%
At the end of 2028, will the consensus of major news sources be that Minicircle is/was a fraud?
$1285 tradersopen
28%