Manifold Creator
Nicholas Kross
@NicholasKross
Markets by Nicholas Kross
Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
$23K17 tradersResolved
100%
Will a question created this week enter the Top 10 for total traders?
$9K10 tradersResolved
0%
[Manipulation Monday] Will this market's volume exceed 3,000 mana by end-of-week?
$5K3 tradersResolved
100%
Will more than one nuclear weapon be detonated in conflict this year?
$3K8 tradersResolved
3%
Will this market's total Mana volume end in a "0"?
$3K38 tradersResolved
11%
Will /r/place last long enough for Bad Apple to finish?
$3K7 tradersResolved
99%
How many views will my Manifold podcast get?
$2K6 tradersResolved
—
Will Yann LeCun *publicly* endorse AI alignment research in 2023?
$2K19 tradersResolved
3%
Will a Big Cloud provider have a 1+ hour outage this year?
$2K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will I promote to Diamond Rank this season?
$2K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will the WGA strike end by May 31?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will Billie Eilish release a new studio album this year?
$2K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will ARC's "matrix completion" bounty be claimed?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will I reach 1,000 YouTube subscribers this Summer?
$1K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will Trump do a Face/Off-style appearance surgery?
$1K12 tradersResolved
5%
Will Joe Rogan interview Lex Fridman on JRE in 2023?
$1K7 tradersResolved
2%
Will this market's total Mana volume end in a "9"?
$1K11 tradersResolved
10%
Will I donate more than M1000 total to charities on Manifold, this month?
$92212 tradersResolved
93%
Will ACX post a new fiction story this month?
$84410 tradersResolved
4%
Will Post Malone release a new studio album this year?
$8004 tradersResolved
98%
Will Manifold add "private notes" on bets?
$78910 tradersResolved
4%
Will CS:GO gain more avg. players in May than April 2023?
$7404 tradersResolved
98%
[Manipulation Monday] Will the Manipulation Monday group get more than 5 members this week?
$5275 tradersResolved
95%
If Reddit IPOs in 2023, will its valuation be >= $6B?
$51013 tradersResolved
33%
Will OpenAI's total all-time outside funding reach or surpass $25 billion this year?
$4678 tradersResolved
8%
Will Team Fortress 2 gain players in May?
$4546 tradersResolved
8%
Will Neuralink IPO in 2023?
$4427 tradersResolved
4%
[Manipulation Monday] Will the Manipulation Monday group get more than 10 members this week?
$4074 tradersResolved
9%
Am I a pseudonym of Nicholas Kees?
$39411 tradersResolved
6%
[Manipulation Monday] Will I gain more than 10 followers on Twitter this week?
$3086 tradersResolved
13%
Will [my secret project] succeed, by my subjective estimate?
$24913 tradersResolved
28%
[Poll] Will more people one-box, than two-box?
$2485 tradersResolved
93%
Which AI project should I do this weekend?
$17810 tradersResolved
—
Will somebody make a multi-karma-types site?
$1613 tradersResolved
84%
Will I get more than $20 in total donations to my AI blog, this month?
$1175 tradersResolved
28%
Mansplain, manipulate, or malewife?
$954 tradersResolved
—
Gaslight, gatekeep, or girlboss?
$895 tradersResolved
—
[Manipulation Monday] Will this market resolve as "No"?
$543 tradersResolved
46%
Vape Stock
$464 tradersopen
—
Would you date yourself? [Predict the Responses]
$415 tradersResolved
61%