Manifold Creator

Nathan Scott ♠︎

@NathanScott

Markets by Nathan Scott ♠︎

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

$31K131 tradersResolved
86%

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

$3K12 tradersopen

Will Mike Johnson be the Speaker of the House on November 28, 2025?

$2K25 tradersResolved
99%

If Biden is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

$1K43 tradersResolved
73%

Will JD Vance and Usha Vance announce a divorce by the end of 2026?

$1K20 tradersopen
1%

Will Chuck Schumer endorse Zohran Mamdani before the NYC mayor election?

$1K27 tradersResolved
1%

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

$1K25 tradersopen
61%

In the chess Candidates Tournament 2026, will anyone play the London opening?

$1K3 tradersResolved
99%

Will Trump's approval rating reach 39.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of 2026?

$9529 tradersResolved
91%

Will the Tyson plant in Lexington, Nebraska shut down by the end of January 2026?

$9346 tradersResolved
99%

Will Trump's approval rating reach 40.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of September 2026?

$8679 tradersResolved
98%

How many of the redrawn Texas districts will Democrats win, out of the attempted Democrat to GOP flips?

$68710 tradersopen

Will Sonja Lang publish a new book by the end of February 2026?

$6398 tradersResolved
93%

Will Trump's approval reach 42.4% or lower before April 1, 2026?

$61514 tradersResolved
98%

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

$54612 tradersopen
7%

Will the pride flag become a congressionally authorized flag by the end of 2026?

$54210 tradersopen
5%

Will FEMA be funded by the end of April 2026?

$3586 tradersResolved
71%

President Stocks - J Edition

$3478 tradersopen

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it move further away from midnight?

$30311 tradersResolved
33%

Will Congress introduce a bill focused on internet piracy by the end of February 2026?

$2998 tradersResolved
71%

Will Jared Isaacman leave the position of NASA Administrator by the end of 2027?

$2438 tradersopen
12%

Will the SAVE Act become law by the end of 2026?

$24213 tradersopen
19%

How many states will legalize medical marijuana before it becomes legal federally?

$1909 tradersopen

Will the game "I Am Jesus Christ" have an 80 or above on Opencritic a month after its release?

$18710 tradersResolved
28%

Will a federal court agree to hear a new internet piracy case by the end of 2024?

$1797 tradersResolved
45%

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

$16816 tradersResolved
77%

Will I hit my exercise goals in April?

$1619 tradersResolved
40%

Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?

$1185 tradersopen
82%

Will the Tennessee state Democrats break out of the superminority in either chamber by the end of January 2036?

$1001 tradersopen
80%

Will Trump's approval rating reach 38.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of March 2027?

$803 tradersResolved
76%

Will Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027?

$602 tradersopen
72%

Will I go on a run on at least 17 days in March?

$575 tradersResolved
62%

Will I reach my goals for the rest of April?

$513 tradersResolved
58%

What was the Roman Dodecahedron for?

$333 tradersopen

Will Marco Rubio leave the position of Secretary of State by the end of 2027?

$283 tradersopen
43%

Will the Chess musical announce a US tour by the end of 2026?

$212 tradersopen
41%

Will Brooke Rollins leave the Secretary of Agriculture position by the end of 2027?

$101 tradersopen
45%

Will Doug Burgum leave the position of Secretary of the Interior by the end of 2027?

$101 tradersopen
55%

Will either of Alex Jones' appeals go to court by the end of June 2024?

$101 tradersResolved
59%

Which of these potential Trump vice presidents is the most palatable to Democrats?

$051 tradersResolved