Manifold Creator
Nathan Nguyen
@NathanNguyen
Markets by Nathan Nguyen
Will anyone with >10,000 Twitter followers use the word “rationalussy” in 2023?
$69K43 tradersResolved
99%
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
$56K272 tradersopen
82%
Conditional on the Balaji/Medlock bet taking place, will Bitcoin be worth >$1M in 90 days?
$21K8 tradersResolved
0%
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
$18K253 tradersopen
63%
Will “the market” show another change in percentage of >50% by the time it resolves?
$15K26 tradersResolved
7%
If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?
$11K97 tradersopen
72%
Will any top 10 university admit significantly more Asian students in the next 5 years?
$6K38 tradersResolved
97%
Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?
$4K46 tradersopen
5%
Will there be >10,000 trades on this market?
$3K17 tradersResolved
89%
Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?
$3K56 tradersopen
71%
Will Richard Hanania announce he’s gone vegan by end of 2024?
$3K17 tradersResolved
5%
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
$3K61 tradersopen
26%
By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?
$3K23 tradersopen
6%
Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?
$2K30 tradersopen
29%
What city should I move to?
$2K1 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?
$2K57 tradersopen
67%
Will there be >3 swings in the linked market?
$2K3 tradersResolved
98%
If Joe Biden is elected President in 2024, will he serve his full term?
$2K31 tradersResolved
23%
Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?
$1K36 tradersopen
27%
Will JK Rowling allow a tv adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by end of 2030?
$1K28 tradersopen
6%
If Trump wins the US presidential election, will at least 100 people die in riots/protests against his presidency?
$1K9 tradersResolved
21%
Will a realistic Pokemon game be available on a VR headset device before 2027?
$1K10 tradersopen
5%
I will get a date with Kayla tomorrow
$1K1 tradersResolved
0%
Will the number of traders in this market be greater than the percentage it resolves at?
$57825 tradersResolved
26%
Will Tucker Carlson start a Substack this year?
$4468 tradersResolved
5%
By end of 2023, will Richard Hanania still agree with Steven Pinker about AI?
$3818 tradersResolved
92%
By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device
$2749 tradersopen
90%
Will the New York Times publish another article on the Gaza hospital explosion by November 2?
$2394 tradersResolved
91%
Will this market have an even number of trades when it closes?
$21415 tradersResolved
49%
Will Bryan Caplan publicly apologize for saying something controversial by end of 2028?
$14710 tradersopen
19%
Will I still be annoyed by the frequency of telemarketing calls I receive by the end of this year?
$1136 tradersResolved
83%
Will there be a RationalWiki article about TracingWoodgrains by 2027?
$1135 tradersopen
33%
By end of 2028, will the median data scientist’s salary be >$100,000?
$904 tradersopen
59%
Will XPRIZE award at least $61 million to a team for reversing aging?
$874 tradersopen
36%
Will a 3D bio-printed steak be sold from a restaurant for <$100 by EOY 2029?
$826 tradersopen
57%
Will NPR have more listeners in 2027 than in 2023?
$583 tradersopen
46%
By end of 2039, will a child will be born whose genetic parents are both babies/prepubescent?
$504 tradersopen
28%
Will Jesse Singal get into a fight on Twitter in 2024?
$234 tradersResolved
63%
Will someone reveal plagiarism in Andrew Huberman’s research by 2028?
$101 tradersopen
45%