Manifold Creator
Nate Watson
@NateWatson
Markets by Nate Watson
Will Trump take credit for the election of Leo XIV as the first American Pope?
$14K147 tradersResolved
88%
Will Hamas issue an ultimatum threatening to execute a hostage?
$8K43 tradersResolved
4%
What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?
$6K14 tradersopen
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How often will each opening be played in the 2024 Chess world championship [see rules].
$6K14 tradersResolved
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Will Shohei Ohtani hit 40 home runs in 2024?
$5K20 tradersResolved
95%
Will someone be killed by a Cruise or Waymo taxi by 2025?
$5K24 tradersResolved
3%
Will Israel allow settlements in Gaza before 2025?
$4K19 tradersResolved
3%
Will RFK jr get any votes from democrats for his nomination to HHS?
$3K35 tradersResolved
1%
If Trump tries to run for a third term, how many Supreme Court Justices support him?
$3K23 tradersopen
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Will the first pig kidney transplant be successful long term?
$2K14 tradersResolved
2%
Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
$2K21 tradersopen
15%
Will the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans in 2023 increase from 2022 on the PRRI Survey?
$1K18 tradersResolved
3%
Will Trump Publicly Support Yoon Suk Yeol by the end of January 2025?
$1K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will Noah Lyles win world athlete of the year?
$1K3 tradersResolved
88%
Will Elon Musk be more popular than Donald Trump by July 4?
$1K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFT floor price close 2024 below 25 ETH (~10% below Dec 2023).
$1K9 tradersResolved
80%
Outcome of Comey Indictment
$1K9 tradersclosed
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Outcome of Letitia James Indictment
$9729 tradersclosed
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Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
$62021 tradersopen
68%
Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
$43415 tradersopen
41%
Will the four year bitcoin cycle continue?
$37312 tradersopen
59%
What is Rationalussy?
$3008 tradersResolved
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Will public officials be barred from blocking people on Facebook in Supreme Court case O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier?
$854 tradersResolved
28%
What is Rationalussy?
$023 tradersResolved
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