Manifold Creator
Nat 🔗
@Nat
Markets by Nat 🔗
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
$185K86 tradersResolved
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How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
$51K37 tradersopen
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When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?
$20K20 tradersResolved
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Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?
$18K9 tradersopen
3%
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
$17K51 tradersopen
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When will the FAA close the mishap investigation for Starship IFT-3?
$16K27 tradersResolved
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When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
$15K42 tradersopen
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Starship flight 9 soft touchdown?
$14K27 tradersResolved
1%
Starship flight 10 soft touchdown?
$14K111 tradersResolved
49%
Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)
$13K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will the IM-1 Odysseus lunar lander survive lunar night?
$13K36 tradersResolved
0%
How long after Starship IFT-3 will the FAA grant a launch license for IFT-4
$11K22 tradersResolved
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Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?
$11K19 tradersResolved
1%
Starship's next three flights each launch within six weeks of prior?
$10K17 tradersResolved
1%
SpaceX conducts at least one Starship launch every month for the next 6 months (Mar-Aug)
$10K22 tradersResolved
1%
I promote to Masters before demoting to Platinum? (Leagues)
$10K19 tradersResolved
1%
When will I be free of my diamond curse 😩? (Leagues)
$10K16 tradersResolved
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Will Starship flight 5 conduct a simulated deorbit burn?
$9K8 tradersResolved
1%
How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Heavy in 2025?
$8K10 tradersResolved
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When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
$8K7 tradersopen
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Will Trump or Elon acknowledge the Trumpets of Patriots before the 2025 Australian election?
$8K10 tradersResolved
1%
When will Sweepstakes be enabled in NSW, Australia?
$5K6 tradersResolved
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When will the first deliveries of the 2nd gen Tesla Roadster occur?
$5K15 tradersopen
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Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?
$4K10 tradersopen
4%
Will Starship Flight 4 result in an FAA mishap investigation?
$4K19 tradersResolved
8%
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
$3K17 tradersopen
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Will Trump publicly deny the 2024 election results if he loses?
$3K27 tradersResolved
89%
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?
$2K15 tradersopen
6%
Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before 2055?
$2K6 tradersopen
20%
When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km?
$1K7 tradersopen
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When will a Starship first relaunch in under 24hrs?
$1K11 tradersopen
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When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
$1K11 tradersopen
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Were the firearms used in the Bondi Beach mass shooting acquired illegally?
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump publicly question the validity of the 2024 election results if he loses?
$1K18 tradersResolved
92%
When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?
$97913 tradersopen
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Will there be an event unveiling the new design of the Tesla Roadster by EOY 2024?
$9657 tradersResolved
2%
Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?
$7898 tradersopen
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Will Gilmour Space's Eris rocket launch more than once in 2024?
$7015 tradersResolved
5%
Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
$70011 tradersopen
57%