Manifold Creator
Muga Sofer
@MugaSofer
Markets by Muga Sofer
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
$39K201 tradersopen
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When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
$4K8 tradersopen
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Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files?
$2K27 tradersopen
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What's true of the mice reportedly released at the UCLA Gaza protest?
$2K22 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Biden resign as an "October Surprise"?
$2K11 tradersResolved
1%
Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?
$2K40 tradersopen
18%
What will happen in Volume 4 of the Alexander Wales web serial Thresholder? [Spoilers]
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?
$8756 tradersopen
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How does Thresholding work in Alexander Wales web serial Thresholder? [Spoilers]
$1595 tradersResolved
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What's the hardest question for o3?
$07 tradersResolved
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