Manifold Creator
Mr Magnolia
@MrMagnolia
Markets by Mr Magnolia
Who will be the next Vice President-elect of the United States?
$196K126 tradersResolved
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Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4-1106-preview on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?
$44K57 tradersResolved
2%
What percentage of 2024 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5?
$12K23 tradersResolved
1%
When will I get back to Boston from New Hampshire?
$12K6 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI have at least 20% of its current staff in 3 weeks?
$12K23 tradersResolved
100%
How many inches of precipitation will be recorded in Downtown San Francisco for January?
$12K3 tradersResolved
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Will there be a Starlink launch on 2nd or 3rd Jan 2024?
$9K24 tradersResolved
99%
Total non-drama LessWrong karma for dialogues in October [<500 - 900+]?
$7K13 tradersResolved
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Will the next UK general election be held in 2024?
$6K27 tradersResolved
99%
Will we have a clear official story about what happened with the OpenAI ouster in 2 months?
$5K17 tradersResolved
8%
Will El Niño be active until March 2024?
$5K15 tradersResolved
99%
Which Lightcone team member will be the most responsible for the highest karma dialogue by December 1 (only one winner!)
$5K3 tradersResolved
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Total non-drama LessWrong karma for dialogues in October
$4K10 tradersResolved
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What will the next Curated LessWrong Post after "There is way too much serendipity" be?
$4K7 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic have access to GPT-4 weights in 2 months?
$2K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
$2K30 tradersopen
27%
Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?
$2K24 tradersopen
11%
What will the next curated post on LessWrong be?
$1K5 tradersResolved
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In 2 months, will the Open AI ouster have been confirmed to be EA(-ish)-instigated?
$1K15 tradersResolved
21%
What is the most (non-drama) karma a LessWrong Dialogue will get in October
$8406 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
$53514 tradersopen
18%
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
$45711 tradersopen
41%
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
$26210 tradersopen
53%
In 2 months, will I think Anthropic looks more powerful than it did 2 months ago?
$2136 tradersResolved
14%
Will LOY-001 establish safety?
$18210 tradersopen
81%
Will a >100 karma LW post claim "How to Catch a Liar" suffers from similar problems to CCS?
$1445 tradersopen
31%
What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI announces GPT-5?
$1237 tradersResolved
40%
What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5?
$805 tradersResolved
39%