Manifold Creator
Mira
@Mira_
Markets by Mira
What will be the trading volume of this market at close?
$2.1M33 tradersResolved
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Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?
$348K36 tradersResolved
2%
Will GPT-5 be announced in March 2024?
$147K316 tradersResolved
1%
Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?
$123K75 tradersResolved
3%
What will be true about GPT-4.5?
$93K155 tradersResolved
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What will be true about GPT-5?
$79K298 tradersclosed
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Will Gary Marcus be revealed to be, and have always been, GPT-5?
$60K68 tradersResolved
48%
Will GPT-4.5 be released in January?
$46K116 tradersResolved
1%
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
$27K70 tradersResolved
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Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released in October?
$24K95 tradersResolved
1%
When will Kenshin9000 release a functioning chess engine?
$16K48 tradersResolved
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What month will Llama 3 400B+ be released?
$12K42 tradersResolved
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With the lawyers that sued Tesla to block Elon Musk's pay receive at least $1 billion?
$11K28 tradersResolved
2%
Will Guantanamo Bay be closed by the time Joe Biden's term ends?
$11K39 tradersResolved
1%
Will Q* be legally considered AGI?
$9K59 tradersResolved
10%
Will Llama 3 405B have open weights?
$7K63 tradersResolved
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Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025)
$7K18 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI release the weights of GPT-3? (2024)
$7K30 tradersResolved
3%
Will Tesla reincorporate in Texas? (2024)
$6K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will any 3-letter agency be known to have investigated @Mira by end of 2024?
$5K58 tradersResolved
9%
Will Kenshin9000 solve the ARC-AGI challenge?
$5K28 tradersResolved
1%
Will @Mira find a prompt enabling GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku challenges?
$5K28 tradersResolved
4%
Will nobody randomly roll a number below market price?
$5K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)
$5K19 tradersResolved
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Will Elon Musk's "Q*/GPT-4 are AGI" lawsuit be dismissed for lack of standing?
$5K18 tradersResolved
4%
What is the next OpenAI LLM logo color?
$4K55 tradersResolved
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Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)
$4K16 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI release any new models or model updates on February 15?
$3K40 tradersResolved
15%
Will kenshin9000's released code have a dependency on Stockfish?
$3K32 tradersResolved
16%
Will the Doomsday Clock advance forward because of AI?
$3K58 tradersResolved
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@BTE stock
$2K15 tradersclosed
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Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
$2K11 tradersResolved
7%
Will @Mira find a GPT-3.5 prompt that solves easy Sudoku puzzles?
$2K12 tradersResolved
2%
Will Trump officially apologize for the 'eating cats and dogs' rumors?
$2K22 tradersResolved
1%
@Mira 's New Years Resolutions 2024
$2K20 tradersResolved
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When will WizardLM 2 return?
$1K3 tradersResolved
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Will @Mira have a positive balance in 2024?
$1K19 tradersResolved
15%
Which proposals on the Nomic game will be accepted?
$8305 tradersResolved
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What is true of the new Japanese GPT-4?
$73216 tradersclosed
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Will OpenAI announce anything in the next 2 hours?
$72216 tradersResolved
7%