Manifold Creator
Mira
@Mira
Markets by Mira
Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)
$3.2M3,152 tradersResolved
51%
Who will win the Manifold Lottery?
$989K71 tradersResolved
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[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
$621K71 tradersResolved
1%
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted? (2023)
$521K670 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-4 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
$462K407 tradersResolved
90%
How many traders will this market get?
$379K349 tradersResolved
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Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?
$356K93 tradersopen
1%
Will private markets be accessible through API? (2023)
$346K37 tradersResolved
5%
Did kenshin9000 "beat all chess engines" with GPT-4?
$271K247 tradersResolved
2%
DotA 2 TI 2023: Group stages - Live betting
$146K11 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
$100K275 tradersResolved
2%
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 finetuning by Fall 2023?
$85K170 tradersResolved
0%
[M5000 subsidy] Will finetuned GPT-3.5 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
$78K82 tradersResolved
2%
What month will Jimmy Carter die?
$72K51 tradersResolved
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If @Mira applies to OpenAI, will Mira get the job?
$72K131 tradersResolved
1%
Will @Mira and @MiraBot break 1 million mana in profit? (2023)
$72K42 tradersResolved
100%
Will Twitter still exist as "Twitter"? (2024)
$69K365 tradersResolved
1%
Will "the market" resolve YES?
$66K44 tradersResolved
1%
What will GPT-5's context size be? (2025)
$66K106 tradersResolved
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Who will find the first prompt enabling GPT-4 to solve one freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
$57K50 tradersResolved
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Which team will win DotA 2's The International 2023 tournament?
$50K29 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI's GPT-4 API support image inputs in 2023?
$44K35 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
$44K75 tradersResolved
8%
Will ChatGPT support image inputs in 2023?
$40K62 tradersResolved
100%
Who will find the first prompt enabling GPT-4 to solve one freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (multibinary, 2023)
$39K84 tradersResolved
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When will Gemini Ultra be released?
$38K47 tradersResolved
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Will GPT 4.5 be announced by October? (2023)
$37K93 tradersResolved
1%
What modalities will GPT 4.5 have? (January 2024)
$36K47 tradersResolved
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Payout Contract
$34K5 tradersResolved
0%
Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?
$34K114 tradersResolved
3%
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
$33K84 tradersResolved
3%
If another statement on AI risk is released by May 31, 2023, who will be the Turing Award winner that signs it?
$30K32 tradersResolved
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(M100 subsidy) Will GPT-4 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (May 2023)
$30K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will @Mira be promoted to Diamond? (May 2023)
$23K19 tradersResolved
100%
When will the Apple Vision Pro be available for purchase online? (2024)
$22K21 tradersResolved
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Has GPT-4.5 already started rolling out?
$22K84 tradersResolved
2%
When will NovelAI release a new image generation model? (2023)
$20K9 tradersResolved
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Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024)
$19K70 tradersResolved
8%
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
$19K69 tradersResolved
81%
Will GPT-3.5 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
$19K72 tradersResolved
3%