Manifold Creator
MingCat
@MingCat
Markets by MingCat
Who will win Horse Race Test Tournament: Here Racehorses Transcend?
$158K84 tradersResolved
—
Outcomes of Trump's Strait of Hormuz ultimatum
$70K515 tradersResolved
—
Bitcoin goes below $100k in October?
$45K68 tradersResolved
1%
Will MIRI raise its 2025 funding goal of $6M?
$37K78 tradersResolved
1%
Which AI model will win the Kaggle Game Arena Chess tournament?
$23K47 tradersResolved
—
Will @dieworkwear successfully get $5k USD raised for Cat Rescue charities?
$22K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will Stephen Fry be the narrator for the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" audiobook?
$20K34 tradersResolved
1%
@kache finds a new full-time job in how many days?
$19K31 tradersResolved
—
Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?
$18K55 tradersResolved
4%
Will any current Anti-AI Race hunger strike achieve anything?
$18K62 tradersResolved
2%
Will this market's % equal a prime number at close?
$16K68 tradersResolved
33%
Who will win @snakesandrews' final Horse Race Test?
$15K26 tradersResolved
—
Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?
$14K39 tradersResolved
10%
Court order demanding OpenAI log deleted chats reversed by EOY2025?
$10K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will HKU5-CoV-2 reach 100 confirmed human cases in the US by EOY2025?
$9K7 tradersResolved
1%
How many people that know me will I meet at Manifest 2025?
$8K9 tradersResolved
—
When will @laserboat999 have assembled a full gaming PC by?
$8K8 tradersResolved
—
How much money will AI Digest's Agent Village raise for charity?
$7K8 tradersResolved
—
What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]
$7K23 tradersResolved
—
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
$7K12 tradersResolved
99%
In Undertale, was the mystery man W.D. Gaster?
$6K16 tradersopen
87%
Will Manifold be able to solve this NYT Connections-style puzzle?
$5K16 tradersResolved
99%
What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?
$5K15 tradersopen
—
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
$5K21 tradersopen
11%
Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?
$5K9 tradersResolved
5%
Hero (@1thousandfaces) finds a new job in how many days?
$5K13 tradersResolved
—
How many copies will Mina the Hollower sell in its first year?
$4K10 tradersopen
—
Will OpenAI's "_ with ChatGPT" ad campaign be confirmed to be AI-Generated in 2025?
$4K17 tradersResolved
7%
Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030?
$3K25 tradersopen
23%
Will any Manifold Plays Chess market make a bafflingly bad move? [See Desc.]
$3K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?
$3K14 tradersopen
39%
What will be true of the gold-IMO-medal-winning internal OpenAI model? [Add Answers]
$2K15 tradersopen
—
How many days will it take for GPT-4.5's API price to at least halve?
$2K7 tradersResolved
—
Will Claude Sonnet decide to resolve this market YES based on a detailed description of its trades and comments?
$1K31 tradersResolved
62%
Tonight's Blue Jays and Dodgers Game goes how many innings?
$1K3 tradersResolved
—
Will Manifold be accessible again by 11:30 PM PT tonight?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will any of the debris of the failed 8th Starship Flight injure any civilians?
$95415 tradersResolved
1%
Will Terraria 1.4.5 be released as Terraria 1.5?
$9457 tradersResolved
2%
[Short Fuse] Eliezer Yudkowsky expresses optimism towards Anthropic's recent interpretability research before April?
$74613 tradersResolved
1%
Is the "Lobster" model on lmarena GPT-5?
$65925 tradersResolved
43%