Manifold Creator
Mikhail Tal
@MikhailTal
Markets by Mikhail Tal
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
$5.3M155 tradersResolved
98%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?
$1.6M136 tradersResolved
2%
Tesla reports >465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?
$208K115 tradersResolved
99%
EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?
$188K15 tradersResolved
—
US Military action again Venezuela in 2025?
$185K326 tradersResolved
50%
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
$167K137 tradersopen
25%
China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?
$120K29 tradersResolved
1%
EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?
$90K7 tradersResolved
—
China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?
$86K26 tradersResolved
2%
U.S. PHEV sales exceed 22,900 units in Jan 2026?
$80K15 tradersResolved
1%
EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?
$57K7 tradersResolved
—
US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?
$55K41 tradersResolved
6%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Feb 1, 2026?
$49K28 tradersResolved
1%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Jan 1, 2026?
$47K41 tradersResolved
1%
Others 2025 Rhodium primary supply estimate to exceed 7 koz
$43K11 tradersResolved
38%
Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?
$43K37 tradersopen
10%
USITC makes positive preliminary injury determination in Russian unwrought palladium antidumping case?
$41K10 tradersResolved
96%
CATL resumes production in Yichun Lithium resume by Dec 31, 2025
$39K32 tradersResolved
1%
U.S. PHEV sales exceed 35,000 units in Dec 2025?
$38K12 tradersResolved
1%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Apr 1, 2026?
$33K33 tradersResolved
1%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Mar 1, 2026?
$32K39 tradersResolved
1%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Nov 1, 2025?
$27K16 tradersResolved
3%
Next airline to default on debt
$25K4 tradersResolved
—
U.S. PHEV sales to exceed 23,500 units in Feb 2026?
$24K17 tradersResolved
1%
BYD August BEV sales exceed 182,000?
$24K19 tradersResolved
98%
Will the U.S. conduct air or missile strikes against Iran again before Sunday January 18th?
$23K86 tradersResolved
1%
CATL resumes production in Yichun Lithium resume by Mar 31, 2026
$23K24 tradersResolved
1%
Next airline to default
$20K13 tradersopen
—
U.S. BEV sales to exceed 85,000 units in November 2025?
$19K12 tradersResolved
1%
U.S. PHEV sales exceed 20,380 units in Nov 2025?
$19K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?
$18K26 tradersopen
80%
Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?
$17K13 tradersopen
65%
U.S. PHEV sales exceed 18,430 units in September 2025?
$17K14 tradersResolved
98%
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
$17K5 tradersopen
60%
Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?
$16K11 tradersopen
86%
Will Putin accept the US's peace deal by Dec 25, 2025?
$16K44 tradersResolved
1%
Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by May 1, 2026?
$14K17 tradersResolved
1%
Sangdong mine begins production before Dec 31, 2025?
$14K22 tradersResolved
1%
U.S. PHEV sales exceed 24,500 units in Dec 2025?
$14K16 tradersResolved
1%
ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV to exceed 1,292,000 in Sep 2025?
$14K10 tradersResolved
2%