Manifold Creator

Mikhail Tal

@MikhailTal

Markets by Mikhail Tal

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

$5.3M155 tradersResolved
98%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

$1.6M136 tradersResolved
2%

Tesla reports >465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

$208K115 tradersResolved
99%

EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?

$188K15 tradersResolved

US Military action again Venezuela in 2025?

$185K326 tradersResolved
50%

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

$167K137 tradersopen
25%

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

$120K29 tradersResolved
1%

EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?

$90K7 tradersResolved

China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?

$86K26 tradersResolved
2%

U.S. PHEV sales exceed 22,900 units in Jan 2026?

$80K15 tradersResolved
1%

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

$57K7 tradersResolved

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

$55K41 tradersResolved
6%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Feb 1, 2026?

$49K28 tradersResolved
1%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Jan 1, 2026?

$47K41 tradersResolved
1%

Others 2025 Rhodium primary supply estimate to exceed 7 koz

$43K11 tradersResolved
38%

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

$43K37 tradersopen
10%

USITC makes positive preliminary injury determination in Russian unwrought palladium antidumping case?

$41K10 tradersResolved
96%

CATL resumes production in Yichun Lithium resume by Dec 31, 2025

$39K32 tradersResolved
1%

U.S. PHEV sales exceed 35,000 units in Dec 2025?

$38K12 tradersResolved
1%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Apr 1, 2026?

$33K33 tradersResolved
1%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Mar 1, 2026?

$32K39 tradersResolved
1%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Nov 1, 2025?

$27K16 tradersResolved
3%

Next airline to default on debt

$25K4 tradersResolved

U.S. PHEV sales to exceed 23,500 units in Feb 2026?

$24K17 tradersResolved
1%

BYD August BEV sales exceed 182,000?

$24K19 tradersResolved
98%

Will the U.S. conduct air or missile strikes against Iran again before Sunday January 18th?

$23K86 tradersResolved
1%

CATL resumes production in Yichun Lithium resume by Mar 31, 2026

$23K24 tradersResolved
1%

Next airline to default

$20K13 tradersopen

U.S. BEV sales to exceed 85,000 units in November 2025?

$19K12 tradersResolved
1%

U.S. PHEV sales exceed 20,380 units in Nov 2025?

$19K11 tradersResolved
2%

Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?

$18K26 tradersopen
80%

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

$17K13 tradersopen
65%

U.S. PHEV sales exceed 18,430 units in September 2025?

$17K14 tradersResolved
98%

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

$17K5 tradersopen
60%

Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

$16K11 tradersopen
86%

Will Putin accept the US's peace deal by Dec 25, 2025?

$16K44 tradersResolved
1%

Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by May 1, 2026?

$14K17 tradersResolved
1%

Sangdong mine begins production before Dec 31, 2025?

$14K22 tradersResolved
1%

U.S. PHEV sales exceed 24,500 units in Dec 2025?

$14K16 tradersResolved
1%

ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV to exceed 1,292,000 in Sep 2025?

$14K10 tradersResolved
2%