Manifold Creator
Michael L
@MichaelL
Markets by Michael L
Will OpenAI report an incident on February 6th 2024?
$30K30 tradersResolved
0%
Open AI will allow users of ChatGPT+ to use/call more than one GPT simultaneously in a single prompt by March 15, 2024.
$25K53 tradersResolved
0%
Will Apple’s Siri will be replaced by, or upgraded to, an assistant that runs on a LLM by July 1, 2024?
$18K67 tradersResolved
3%
A presidential candidate will take a stance against AI by Feb 1, 2024.
$13K95 tradersResolved
97%
Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?
$9K34 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI release a physical AI device to compete with the Rabbit R1 and Humane Pin by the end of 2024?
$9K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will Mistral AI release a model that is comparable to GPT-4 using LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?
$9K29 tradersResolved
2%
Will OpenAI release an educational license for ChatGPT by July 1, 2024?
$7K16 tradersResolved
3%
Will a video game be released that uses an LLM to generate dialogue from nonhuman players by the end of 2024?
$5K51 tradersResolved
91%
Will Taylor Swift write a song that references AI in 2024?
$5K19 tradersResolved
3%
Will OpenAI report an incident on February 8th, 2024?
$5K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will OpenAI report an incident on February 7th, 2024?
$5K23 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anthropic’s Claude gain the ability to receive images as input by July 1, 2024?
$4K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Hard Fork podcast have an emergency AI episode by the end of the first quarter of 2024?
$4K29 tradersResolved
2%
Will the GPT marketplace launch by February 1st 2024?
$4K27 tradersResolved
98%
Which open source LLM will be the top performing open source LLM by July 1, 2024?
$3K30 tradersResolved
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Will Cixin Liu’s Three Body Problem be turned into a movie or streaming series by the end of 2024?
$3K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will ChatGPT release an update that allows users to easily search and summarize Gmail email messages by July 1, 2024?
$3K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will Code Llama 70B beat GPT-4 on llm coding benchmarks by March 1st?
$3K61 tradersResolved
18%
Which of the following will be the first household appliance to have an onboard LLM?
$2K57 tradersopen
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Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have an onboard LLM?
$2K34 tradersclosed
3%
Will the Apple iPhone 16 (or at least one of iPhone 16’s models) have generative AI capabilities?
$2K38 tradersResolved
87%
Will OpenAI report an incident on February 9th, 2024?
$2K14 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic’s Claude be able to run code like ChatGPT’ code interpreter by July 1, 2024?
$1K28 tradersResolved
81%
Will OpenAI release a physical AI device for general use by the end of 2024?
$1K21 tradersResolved
13%
Which of the following will be the next feature/product released by OpenAI?
$1K20 tradersResolved
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Will smartphones commonly come with 16+ gig of RAM by the end of 2024 to accommodate onboard LLMs?
$89823 tradersclosed
11%
Will OpenAI face a lawsuit in which a company claims that a GPT they released was copied or cloned, by July 1, 2024?
$7759 tradersResolved
4%
Will Anthropic release an iOS app for Claude by July 1, 2024?
$60227 tradersResolved
58%
Will ChatGPT updates be released that give it equal or superior LAM functionality to the Rabbit R1 by July 1, 2024?
$4717 tradersResolved
5%
Will Taylor Swift perform at a New Year’s Eve celebration?
$3598 tradersResolved
16%
Will Google respond to OpenAI’s announcement of GPT-4o by releasing a new feature or model on May 14th?
$1016 tradersResolved
63%