Manifold Creator
Metastable
@Metastable
Markets by Metastable
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the DarkHorse Podcast by 2025?
$9K14 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be a public discussion between Elon Musk and Eliezer Yudkowsky?
$9K16 tradersResolved
2%
Will it be confirmed by 2026 that OpenAI had a model/system called Q* or Zero?
$3K13 tradersResolved
97%
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
$2K21 tradersopen
12%
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
$2K29 tradersopen
15%
Will Elon Musk name his child "Physics"?
$1K31 tradersopen
18%
Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?
$1K12 tradersopen
56%
Will it be confirmed before 2026 that there was a letter to the board of OpenAI motivated by AI breakthrough?
$1K4 tradersResolved
1%
Will AI be able to describe the state of a chessboard from an image before 2026?
$95220 tradersResolved
52%
Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
$8849 tradersopen
85%
When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench?
$6166 tradersopen
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Will AI replicate the book cover of "Artificial Intelligence: Safety and Security" before 2026?
$4716 tradersResolved
97%
Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?
$41012 tradersopen
15%
Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?
$30511 tradersopen
39%
Will Google's model accessible through AI studio successfully navigate 10x10 maze before 2026?
$3049 tradersResolved
47%
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
$2887 tradersopen
11%
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
$2863 tradersopen
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Will a text-to-image model replicate the book cover of "Artificial Intelligence: Safety and Security" before 2025?
$2519 tradersResolved
62%
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
$1868 tradersopen
12%
Will Anthropic report a net profit for a next phase of Project Vend or its successor before 2026?
$1145 tradersResolved
21%
Will all clones of this market have an average final prediction above 50% when they all close?
$1128 tradersResolved
45%
In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?
$702 tradersopen
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