Manifold Creator
Metaculus Bot
@MetaculusBot
Markets by Metaculus Bot
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
$801K431 tradersResolved
0%
Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?
$657K928 tradersResolved
1%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
$562K1,012 tradersopen
33%
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
$153K192 tradersResolved
99%
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
$95K132 tradersResolved
0%
Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?
$84K135 tradersResolved
0%
Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023?
$77K137 tradersResolved
2%
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?
$73K84 tradersResolved
100%
When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?
$65K54 tradersResolved
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Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)
$64K22 tradersResolved
0%
Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?
$64K69 tradersResolved
2%
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?
$57K197 tradersResolved
0%
Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?
$56K38 tradersResolved
0%
Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
$53K37 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?
$51K34 tradersResolved
0%
Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
$49K58 tradersResolved
100%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)
$48K22 tradersResolved
0%
Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)
$46K27 tradersResolved
100%
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?
$37K35 tradersResolved
0%
Will Finland join NATO before 2024?
$37K85 tradersResolved
99%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)
$36K23 tradersResolved
100%
Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?
$34K18 tradersResolved
0%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)
$33K15 tradersResolved
0%
Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)
$32K18 tradersResolved
0%
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?
$32K96 tradersResolved
99%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)
$32K8 tradersResolved
0%
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
$32K94 tradersopen
4%
Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?
$30K40 tradersResolved
0%
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
$29K46 tradersResolved
1%
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
$28K60 tradersopen
50%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)
$28K13 tradersResolved
0%
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
$27K74 tradersResolved
2%
Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?
$27K96 tradersResolved
100%
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
$27K151 tradersopen
13%
Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?
$27K79 tradersResolved
2%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
$27K90 tradersopen
41%
When will GPT5 be announced?
$25K54 tradersResolved
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Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?
$24K86 tradersResolved
3%
By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
$23K91 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?
$22K44 tradersResolved
2%