Manifold Creator
Maxime Riché
@MaximeRiche
Markets by Maxime Riché
By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using mind reading to control the generation.
$10K21 tradersResolved
1%
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
$9K42 tradersopen
10%
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
$8K58 tradersResolved
4%
Is gpt2-chatbot a GPT-5 version with a parameter count similar to GPT-2?
$3K15 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be at least one 8 magnitude (or above) earthquake before 2025 within 200 km of Lima (Peru)?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?
$6253 tradersopen
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Is GPT-4-turbo (1106-preview) more capable than GPT-4 (0613)?
$4029 tradersResolved
78%
By 2025, a large scale hacking attack relies heavily on LLM hacking capabilities.
$3098 tradersResolved
11%
Will there be a civil war in Saudi Arabia with more than 100 000 deaths before 2050?
$2579 tradersopen
19%
By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using a voice chat to control the generation.
$2004 tradersResolved
10%
Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?
$1789 tradersopen
85%
In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?
$1788 tradersopen
68%
Is GPT-4 (0613) more capable than GPT-4 (0314)?
$1085 tradersResolved
71%
Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-6-like?
$503 tradersopen
60%
Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-5-like?
$101 tradersopen
55%
How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?
$01 tradersopen
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