Manifold Creator
Max Harms
@MaxHarms
Markets by Max Harms
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
$46K197 tradersopen
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Which Republicans will be a part of the Harris cabinet?
$22K74 tradersResolved
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Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?
$21K121 tradersopen
7%
Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025?
$20K62 tradersResolved
1%
War with Iran, China, or Russia? (+ US president 2024)
$14K52 tradersResolved
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By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
$13K41 tradersResolved
1%
Dune: Part Three Prop Bets
$13K62 tradersopen
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Will Iran strike US soil this year?
$13K96 tradersopen
14%
Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?
$11K40 tradersResolved
99%
Liz Cheney, Anthony Fauci, or AOC arrested before 2026
$9K37 tradersResolved
3%
Who will win the TX-10 Congressional District?
$8K6 tradersopen
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Red Heart hits an Amazon bestseller list before 2026?
$8K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will Elon Musk make a $1mil+ bet that "AI [will be] smarter than any one human probably around the end of [2025]"?
$5K39 tradersResolved
2%
Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
$5K19 tradersopen
94%
What will my new novel be rated?
$5K15 tradersResolved
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How many reviews will Red Heart get on Amazon this year?
$4K9 tradersResolved
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When will the Red Heart audiobook come out?
$3K10 tradersResolved
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Will Nectome have a preservation center by the end of the year?
$3K8 tradersopen
24%
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
$3K35 tradersopen
48%
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
$3K65 tradersopen
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Will Nectome's human preservation protocol be published in a peer-reviewed journal by end of 2028?
$2K10 tradersopen
84%
Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?
$2K12 tradersopen
70%
Holodeck When?
$1K8 tradersopen
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Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
$1K11 tradersopen
23%
Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?
$1K10 tradersopen
73%
Who will like or promote my novel, Red Heart?
$1K16 tradersResolved
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Will Nectome still be operating in 2032?
$8574 tradersopen
74%
When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs
$77418 tradersopen
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Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?
$6503 tradersopen
31%
Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?
$5075 tradersopen
67%
Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?
$4494 tradersopen
32%
Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036?
$3004 tradersopen
50%
In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?
$2454 tradersopen
45%
Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
$1947 tradersopen
5%
Who will win the TN-9 Congressional District?
$1654 tradersopen
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Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?
$1253 tradersopen
80%
Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation?
$202 tradersopen
79%
Will Aurelia Song abandon Nectome before 2041?
$31 tradersopen
9%
Is the typical cryonics brain is well-preserved?
$00 tradersopen
15%