Manifold Creator
Max Ghenis
@MaxGhenis
Markets by Max Ghenis
Will GPT-4 have at least 100 trillion parameters?
$25K81 tradersResolved
1%
Will Oregon voters pass the Oregon Rebate ballot measure in November 2024?
$12K16 tradersResolved
1%
Who will win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics?
$6K25 tradersResolved
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Will the Oregon Rebate qualify for the November 2024 ballot?
$5K15 tradersResolved
97%
Will BLS average retail tomato prices rise from January to February 2026?
$5K3 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act pass in February?
$4K24 tradersResolved
1%
When will TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) be renegotiated and extended?
$4K8 tradersResolved
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Will BLS average retail ground beef prices rise from January to February 2026?
$3K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will BLS average retail egg prices rise from January to February 2026?
$3K4 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US enact legislation to inflation-index the Child Tax Credit in January 2024?
$3K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will PolicyEngine pass TAXSIM35 validation for all state tax models in March 2024?
$3K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will BLS average retail potato prices rise from January to February 2026?
$3K4 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Minab school strike be attributed to an Iranian missile by June 2026?
$3K20 tradersopen
7%
Will the M3 MacBook Air natively support more than one monitor?
$3K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will the US Child Tax Credit provide the maximum benefit to filers with no earnings in the 2023 tax year?
$2K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will the US increase the maximum 2023 Additional Child Tax Credit before the 2023 tax filing deadline?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US enact legislation to inflation-index the Child Tax Credit in before the 2023 tax filing deadline?
$2K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will BLS average retail orange juice prices rise from January to February 2026?
$2K2 tradersResolved
1%
Will BLS average retail sugar prices rise from January to February 2026?
$2K3 tradersResolved
1%
If Zelenskyy runs for re-election before 2028, will he win?
$2K36 tradersopen
88%
Will the US amend the 2024 Additional Child Tax Credit to depend on prior years' income by the end of January?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US raise its maximum Additional Child Tax Credit for 2023 by the end of January?
$1K12 tradersResolved
3%
How many NYC homes in 2029 if Mamdani elected mayor?
$1K2 tradersopen
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Will the next poll find that most Gaza Strip residents support the October 7 attacks?
$1K11 tradersResolved
98%
Who will win the 2024 Developer Shill bracket?
$1K9 tradersResolved
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Will South Carolina H.4216 (income tax reform) be signed into law in 2026?
$1K3 tradersResolved
98%
Will the US raise its Additional Child Tax Credit to $2,000 for the 2023 tax year in January 2024?
$1K15 tradersResolved
5%
What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
$1K4 tradersopen
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Who will be the next permanent president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?
$1K6 tradersopen
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Will the US amend the 2024 Additional Child Tax Credit to depend on prior years' income before the 2023 filing deadline?
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US increase the Additional Child Tax Credit phase-in rate for 2023 before the 2023 tax filing deadline?
$1K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US amend the 2023 Child Tax Credit to depend on prior years' income by the end of January?
$1K10 tradersResolved
3%
If Trump wins in 2024, which colleges will the US automatically provide green cards to graduates of, by the end of 2025?
$1K10 tradersResolved
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Will the US increase the Additional Child Tax Credit phase-in rate for 2023 by the end of January?
$90011 tradersResolved
3%
Will San Francisco's Bay Bridge lights be active on March 6, 2023?
$78417 tradersResolved
6%
Will the US Congressional Budget Office open source their individual income tax calculator by 2024?
$6799 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Baltimore Baby Bonus qualify for the November 2024 ballot?
$5973 tradersResolved
85%
What month and year will the US lift the Covid public health emergency?
$5708 tradersResolved
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Who will win the 2025 Chief Shill bracket?
$3827 tradersResolved
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Will Baltimore pass the Baltimore Baby Bonus ballot measure in November 2024?
$3768 tradersResolved
66%