Manifold Creator
MaxG
@MaxG
Markets by MaxG
Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?
$25K116 tradersopen
67%
Will Germany experience negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023? (Recession in Germany)
$15K118 tradersResolved
87%
Will Doors of Stone, the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicle by Patrick Rothfuss, be released before 2025?
$14K47 tradersResolved
1%
Will I appear on the author list of an article published in a scientific journal before 2024?
$11K68 tradersResolved
94%
What will be the most significant world event in 2023, according to the Council on Foreign Relations?
$3K31 tradersResolved
—
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
$3K52 tradersopen
14%
Will Markus Söder be Minister-President of Bavaria on the 1st of January 2024?
$3K18 tradersResolved
98%
Will I manage to not eat/drink any sugary sweets until 10 April 2023?
$2K21 tradersResolved
93%
Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?
$1K28 tradersopen
86%
When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?
$1K18 tradersopen
29%
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?
$1K13 tradersopen
94%
Will Berlin manage to build 200,000 new apartments before 2031?
$1K18 tradersopen
20%
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
$92227 tradersopen
78%
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?
$92121 tradersopen
62%
Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?
$83817 tradersResolved
65%
Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?
$41515 tradersopen
70%
Will Manifold bring back "My daily movers" directly on the home screen before March 2023?
$3815 tradersResolved
7%
Will I be accepted for the master‘s degree in Genomic Medicine at Oxford starting in fall 2023?
$1946 tradersResolved
70%
Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2025?
$1483 tradersResolved
25%
Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?
$1463 tradersclosed
27%
Will I be accepted for the master‘s degree Global Health Science and Epidemiology at Oxford starting in fall 2023?
$1355 tradersResolved
36%
Will there be ≥400,000 people with a temporary residence permit for the purpose of employment in Germany in 2024?
$464 tradersResolved
75%