Manifold Creator
Matthew Barnett
@MatthewBarnett
Markets by Matthew Barnett
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
$1.7M2,847 tradersResolved
1%
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
$659K687 tradersopen
58%
Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?
$345K30 tradersResolved
2%
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
$294K294 tradersopen
80%
Will Trump declare victory on election night 2024?
$273K626 tradersResolved
99%
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
$178K348 tradersclosed
1%
Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023
$103K110 tradersResolved
0%
Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?
$92K304 tradersResolved
0%
Will GPT-4 be able to discern what is visually depicted by a block of ASCII text?
$91K94 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-4 be multimodal?
$79K206 tradersResolved
100%
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
$47K324 tradersopen
94%
Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?
$45K208 tradersResolved
9%
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?
$39K85 tradersopen
21%
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
$37K45 tradersResolved
99%
Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024?
$37K152 tradersResolved
2%
Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023?
$36K148 tradersResolved
4%
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
$31K95 tradersopen
31%
Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?
$28K65 tradersResolved
80%
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
$28K111 tradersopen
45%
Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 300,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2025?
$28K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
$27K66 tradersResolved
0%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?
$26K95 tradersopen
81%
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
$25K190 tradersopen
71%
Will a reliable source reveal the existence of a zettascale computer before 2025?
$25K34 tradersResolved
2%
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
$22K80 tradersResolved
3%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
$21K58 tradersclosed
6%
Will I create at least 100 additional self-described high-quality Manifold markets before June 1st 2023?
$20K77 tradersResolved
95%
Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?
$19K51 tradersopen
7%
Will there be a major escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before 2024?
$16K98 tradersResolved
2%
Will Lex Fridman become CEO of Twitter before March 1st 2023?
$16K58 tradersResolved
1%
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?
$15K89 tradersopen
93%
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
$14K38 tradersopen
13%
Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025?
$13K89 tradersclosed
2%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
$13K56 tradersopen
90%
How many months in prison will SBF be sentenced to in March 2024?
$12K62 tradersResolved
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Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
$12K63 tradersopen
55%
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
$12K83 tradersopen
4%
Will there be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023?
$11K53 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Senate Majority Leader in the U.S. be a Republican on January 25th, 2025?
$11K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025?
$11K17 tradersResolved
97%