Manifold Creator
Matt P
@MattP
Markets by Matt P
Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?
$355K210 tradersopen
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Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
$123K370 tradersopen
68%
Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022?
$94K278 tradersResolved
1%
Will Lauren Boebert retain her House seat (CO 3) in the 2022 midterms?
$61K135 tradersResolved
96%
Will Offer Vince Shlomi (the Shamwow guy) win the GOP primary for TX-31?
$35K24 tradersResolved
2%
Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$300?
$26K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nate Silver's next published 2024 model have Trump's chances higher than Manifold's prediction?
$26K80 tradersResolved
99%
What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?
$25K5 tradersResolved
99%
By election day, will Kamala Harris' number of solo interviews exceed Trump's number of assassination attempts?
$17K45 tradersResolved
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Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law by Christmas Day, 2022?
$16K23 tradersResolved
100%
Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law by Thanksgiving Day, 2022?
$16K25 tradersResolved
0%
Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?
$14K27 tradersResolved
0%
How many times will Trump and Harris' win chances have crossed in Nate Silver's forecast by election day?
$13K9 tradersResolved
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Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Democratic party primary season?
$13K50 tradersResolved
2%
Will Stacey Abrams win the 2022 Georgia (GA) governor's race?
$11K37 tradersResolved
1%
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
$9K54 tradersResolved
51%
Will Artemis I Launch by the end of September 2022?
$8K37 tradersResolved
0%
I will resolve this question NO at the end of 2022. (risk free interest rate question)
$8K34 tradersResolved
0%
Will RFK Jr win delegates from New Hampshire in the 2024 Democratic party primary?
$6K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will NASA's Artemis I launch before (end of day) Sept 6th?
$6K51 tradersResolved
0%
Will Gurkenglas convince me that multiplying the net winnings of the market creator by (L_tot-100)/L_tot would not effectively fix the "free money for market creators" "exploit" currently extant in the free daily market system?
$6K4 tradersResolved
4%
Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive any electoral votes in the 2024 US presidential election?
$5K50 tradersResolved
5%
Who will be elected to the Arizona US Senate seat in 2024?
$4K24 tradersResolved
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Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law before the midterms?
$4K35 tradersResolved
1%
Who will sit in Dianne Feinstein's US Senate seat starting in 2025?
$4K21 tradersResolved
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This question will resolve positively on Nov 20th, 2022.
$4K35 tradersResolved
99%
Will BTE's Elon Musk Delaware judge market resolve honorably?
$3K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will the rules of daily free markets change significantly before June 21st?
$3K24 tradersResolved
20%
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
$3K18 tradersopen
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Will the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 pass into law in 2022?
$2K15 tradersResolved
4%
Will Trump move on to a new DeSantis nickname before the 2024 election?
$2K20 tradersResolved
96%
Will a federal protection for net neutrality pass into law before the midterms?
$2K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will John Gibbs be elected to the US House of Representatives (MI-3) in 2022?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
I will resolve this question YES after closing.
$2K10 tradersResolved
98%
What will 538 predict as Dr. Oz's chances of winning his PA Senate election on Nov 1st, 2022?
$2K20 tradersResolved
44%
Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive at least 1.5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
$2K34 tradersResolved
8%
Will a reform of the Electoral Count Act pass into law before the midterms?
$2K16 tradersResolved
4%
Will the Reproductive Freedom for All Act pass into law before the midterms?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Republican party primary season?
$1K12 tradersResolved
99%
This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. (start 50%)
$1K5 tradersResolved
97%