Manifold Creator
Matt C. Wilson
@MattCWilson
Markets by Matt C. Wilson
5) Search will change more in 2023 than it has since Google went mainstream in the early 2000s.
$37K128 tradersResolved
55%
Who will win the poker tournament (all players this time)
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What % of federal workers who received the “deferred resignation” offer / “fork in the road” email will take it?
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Who will win the poker tournament final? (Not all players! See description!)
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Will another cloud-based password management service with >1 million users be hacked and have user password vaults stolen in 2023?
$18K101 tradersResolved
6%
1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.
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99%
Will I continue to be active on Manifold in another 50 days?
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6%
Which player at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated first?
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9) DeepMind, Google Brain, and/or OpenAI will undertake efforts to build a foundation model for robotics.
$10K52 tradersResolved
93%
12. One of the big 6 US airlines will buy out a smaller carrier.
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92%
8) The number of research projects that build on or cite AlphaFold will surge.
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92%
1. Airfare will fall at least 5% compared to 2022.
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90%
My company, Olo, announced an 11% layoff this morning. Will our stock price close higher at the end of June?
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1%
Will the total number of digits in the positions in this market be evenly divisible by the total number of participants?
$4K30 tradersResolved
3%
7) The concept of “LLMOps” will emerge as a trendy new version of MLOps.
$4K44 tradersResolved
47%
My company, Olo, announced an 11% layoff this morning. Will our stock price close higher at the end of next week?
$4K13 tradersResolved
1%
2) We are going to start running out of data to train large language models.
$4K50 tradersResolved
16%
Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated sixth?
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Will Matthew Cox’ YouTube channel gain 18K subscribers (10%) in January 2024?
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1%
What is the farthest away country from which a Manifest attendee came?
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3) For the first time, some members of the general public will begin using fully driverless cars as their day-to-day mode of transportation.
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44%
Will Egg have positive mana by the end of next week?
$3K15 tradersResolved
92%
Who will be the second eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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Unsounded Chapter 18 - Casualty Pool
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Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the third round?
$2K3 tradersResolved
8%
Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated third?
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8. The federal government will move to block the Spirit/JetBlue merger.
$2K15 tradersResolved
92%
Will the first player eliminations at the Manifest 2024 poker final be in the fourth round?
$2K2 tradersResolved
16%
9. No bankruptcy among major US airlines.
$2K19 tradersResolved
97%
Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated second?
$2K3 tradersResolved
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Which player(s) at the Manifest 2024 poker final will be eliminated fifth?
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Who will be the sixth eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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6) Efforts to develop humanoid robots will attract considerable attention, funding and talent. Several new humanoid robot initiatives will launch.
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69%
4) Midjourney will raise venture capital funding.
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10%
Will HBO’s The Last Of Us be renewed for a second season before the end of the first season?
$1K9 tradersResolved
96%
Who will be the 8th eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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Who will be voted out tonight's episode of Survivor 47?
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Who will be the fifth eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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Who will be the third eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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Who will be the 7th eliminated at the poker tournament final?
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