Manifold Creator
Martin Randall
@MartinRandall
Markets by Martin Randall
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
$7.3M1,105 tradersopen
5%
When will Trump serve time?
$1.9M2,584 tradersopen
—
Next US government shutdown (with furlough)
$304K401 tradersResolved
—
Trump vs Biden 2024
$234K191 tradersResolved
—
Will Joe Biden WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
$117K127 tradersResolved
1%
Will any state disqualify Trump from the 2024 primaries?
$87K430 tradersResolved
3%
Will anyone be stripped of their trustworthyishness by the end of 2023 due to inactivity?
$64K61 tradersResolved
100%
Sam Bankman-Fried will be convicted before Donald Trump
$50K67 tradersResolved
100%
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
$49K100 tradersopen
18%
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?
$48K321 tradersResolved
77%
Will Manifold limit markets to 1-99% in 2023?
$43K59 tradersResolved
3%
Which month will this market resolve in?
$41K63 tradersResolved
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Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
$33K80 tradersopen
36%
Will anyone be stripped of their trustworthyishness by the end of 2023 due to misresolution?
$32K75 tradersResolved
0%
Tontine
$27K39 tradersopen
—
How will Trump serve time?
$27K66 tradersopen
—
Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?
$25K198 tradersopen
23%
Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?
$22K131 tradersopen
32%
Will Joe Biden LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
$20K39 tradersResolved
1%
Will Russia invade Finland or Sweden before they join NATO?
$20K47 tradersResolved
0%
Will Kamala Harris WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
$18K45 tradersResolved
1%
Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
$18K65 tradersopen
47%
Will Manifold add a penalty/fee for resolving a market N/A by 2023-07-01?
$18K33 tradersResolved
0%
Is the sky blue? [Resolves to MKT]
$17K32 tradersResolved
89%
A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
$17K26 tradersResolved
1%
The first piece about Manifold Markets in New York Times will be positive
$17K140 tradersResolved
85%
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2024
$17K130 tradersResolved
41%
Biden will be diagnosed with long COVID in 2024
$17K42 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Doomsday Clock be 60s (or less) to midnight by end of January 2026
$15K67 tradersResolved
15%
Cat girl ears by end of 2029?
$14K80 tradersopen
18%
Will an official Manifold wiki be better than the official Manifold help after three months?
$13K29 tradersResolved
0%
In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college
$13K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Yudkowsky make a profit on the superconductor market?
$12K37 tradersResolved
98%
Will Kamala Harris LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
$12K46 tradersResolved
100%
When will Biden drop out?
$11K45 tradersResolved
—
Will former DOGE staffer Marko Elez be back in the US Govt by end of 2025?
$10K28 tradersResolved
96%
Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2023-05-13?
$10K20 tradersResolved
0%
When next Republican president?
$9K32 tradersResolved
—
Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets, by 2024-05-11?
$9K43 tradersResolved
1%
Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
$9K38 tradersopen
20%