Manifold Creator
Mark Hamill
@MarkHamill
Markets by Mark Hamill
[short fuse] Who is the unannounced special guest on the last night of the DNC?
$436K180 tradersResolved
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Who will place second in the primary for California Senate on March 5, 2024? (Full term, not special election)
$219K123 tradersResolved
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Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
$145K507 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?
$144K287 tradersResolved
96%
Will one candidate win all 7 swing states?
$92K259 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the race for President before the New Hampshire primary?
$80K99 tradersResolved
100%
Will more points be scored in Super Bowl 2024 than 2020?
$55K23 tradersResolved
0%
What will Biden’s vote share be in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
$38K41 tradersResolved
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Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President by March 20?
$37K98 tradersResolved
99%
Will Donald Trump win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
$34K163 tradersResolved
98%
[short fuse] Who is the unannounced special guest at Donald Trump's August 23, 2024 rally in Arizona?
$34K148 tradersResolved
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What share of the vote will “Uncommitted” get in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27?
$34K56 tradersResolved
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What will Trump's vote share be in the South Carolina primary? (Each resolves individually)
$33K64 tradersResolved
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Margin of victory in South Carolina GOP primary?
$30K47 tradersResolved
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What will Trump’s national popular vote be? (choices in millions)
$28K41 tradersResolved
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Who will come in second place in the 2024 GOP Nevada caucus?
$26K34 tradersResolved
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What will Harris’s national popular vote be? (choices in millions)
$26K43 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Biden (write-in) win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
$25K69 tradersResolved
99%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy drop out of the race for President before the New Hampshire primary?
$25K96 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bernie Sanders vote Yes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?
$21K49 tradersResolved
1%
Which of the following California counties will Nikki Haley win in the March 5 Republican primary? (Multiple choice)
$20K58 tradersResolved
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Which of the following swing district House reps will win reelection in 2024?
$20K25 tradersResolved
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Will I promote to Diamond in January?
$19K15 tradersResolved
100%
Will one candidate win exactly 6 out of 7 swing states?
$18K41 tradersResolved
1%
Will Dean Phillips drop out of the Presidential race by the end of February?
$17K64 tradersResolved
1%
What will Kamala Harris’s exact vote share be in California in the 2024 election? (Margin of Victory Challenge Mode)
$17K17 tradersResolved
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How will the SCOTUS justices split numerically in the Trump Colorado ballot case? [Multiple choice, each resolves]
$16K92 tradersResolved
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What will happen to Columbia University President Minouche Shafik as a result of using the NYPD on students?
$16K106 tradersResolved
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[short fuse] Will Mark Robinson drop out of the NC Governor race before September 21st, 1 PM ET?
$15K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump win the Iowa caucus by 30 or more points?
$15K38 tradersResolved
0%
Margin of victory in New York House special election on 2/13? (George Santos’s seat)
$15K34 tradersResolved
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Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest?
$14K66 tradersResolved
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Will Rep Jamaal Bowman win his primary on June 25, 2024?
$14K19 tradersResolved
1%
What will Trump’s vote share be in the 2024 Iowa caucus?
$14K55 tradersResolved
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Will Trump be convicted with a felony or misdemeanor by August 1, 2024?
$13K88 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden?
$13K68 tradersResolved
99%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend Trump’s second inauguration?
$13K39 tradersResolved
1%
Will Dean Phillips meet the delegate threshold of 15% in the Democratic New Hampshire primary?
$13K38 tradersResolved
98%
Will Donald Trump win the Iowa caucus by 25 or more points?
$12K52 tradersResolved
98%
Will Nikki Haley get 20 or more points in the Iowa caucus?
$12K22 tradersResolved
1%