Manifold Creator
Marcus Aurelius
@MarcusAurelius
Markets by Marcus Aurelius
Will the Musk Foundation deploy >$100M by 2030?
$6K4 tradersResolved
100%
Will I have met Elon Musk by 2024?
$6K15 tradersResolved
2%
P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
$4K67 tradersopen
50%
Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
$4K65 tradersopen
66%
When will SpaceX land humans on Mars?
$2K26 tradersopen
48%
In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
$1K33 tradersopen
73%
Does Biden have a neurological disorder in the years 2020-2024?
$1K33 tradersopen
69%
Will 3 friends around me use Manifold as a day-to-day betting & accountability tool by 2024?
$1K13 tradersResolved
46%
P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
$96521 tradersopen
20%
By the end of this century, will the dominant form of intelligent life on Earth be digital or biological?
$8859 tradersopen
—
Will I think using prediction markets in my day-to-day will have made me a better thinker by 2024?
$87824 tradersResolved
39%
Will I have an 4.0 this semester?
$82822 tradersResolved
63%
What will be the most talent-dense & promising group house in the SF Bay Area by 2024?
$7067 tradersResolved
—
Will the Musk Foundation fund a major EA project by 2031?
$68018 tradersopen
49%
Will my Manifold portfolio be net-positive for 6 or more months of 2023?
$6138 tradersResolved
96%
Will I have met [my most influential idol] in person by 2023?
$4146 tradersResolved
92%
Will I have been a billionaire before 2051?
$3388 tradersopen
9%
Will I have been a millionaire before 2051?
$33510 tradersopen
77%
In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
$23511 tradersopen
15%
Will I ever be above 20% body fat before 2035?
$1666 tradersopen
31%
Will I have been a deca-millionaire before 2051?
$1518 tradersopen
35%
Will I think my 2023 was a better year than my 2022?
$958 tradersResolved
63%
In one month, will I think ≥80% of the first 20 markets on my feed are mostly boring?
$936 tradersResolved
80%
What sort of assembly are the people on the table next to us?
$401 tradersResolved
—