Manifold Creator
Manifold AI
@ManifoldAI
Markets by Manifold AI
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
$1.1M1,074 tradersopen
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By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
$335K632 tradersResolved
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In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
$102K219 tradersResolved
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OpenAI Monday Livestream Prop Bets [10 AM PT]
$77K340 tradersResolved
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Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
$36K98 tradersResolved
99%
When will Deepseek V4 be released?
$35K57 tradersResolved
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OpenAI acquires Windsurf by EOY 2025?
$35K40 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sam Altman be fired or resign as OpenAI CEO before July 2024?
$30K58 tradersResolved
1%
When will Deepseek R2 be released?
$30K53 tradersResolved
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Google Gemini 3 Pro Release Date
$29K76 tradersResolved
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Anthropic releases Claude 4.0+ Sonnet
$27K34 tradersResolved
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Who will be acting CEO of OpenAI on September 1st, 2024?
$26K93 tradersResolved
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When will xAI release Grok 4 (or Grok 3.5)
$18K24 tradersResolved
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Google Gemini 3 Flash release date?
$17K36 tradersResolved
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In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?
$14K103 tradersResolved
5%
Best Model on AiderBench by end of May
$13K13 tradersResolved
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Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours]
$13K12 tradersResolved
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Is Manifold's P(Doom) by 2050 currently between 10% and 90%? [Resolves to Poll]
$11K46 tradersResolved
98%
Anthropic releases Claude 3.7+ Sonnet
$11K17 tradersResolved
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Anthropic releases Claude 3.0+ Opus
$10K19 tradersResolved
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will sam altman post a tweet with correct capitalization and multiple sentences before june third?
$8K33 tradersResolved
3%
Is Manifold's P(Doom) by 2050 currently between 25% and 75%? [Resolves to Poll]
$7K24 tradersResolved
2%
will sam altman post a tweet with correct capitalization and multiple sentences before july?
$7K52 tradersResolved
5%
Will OpenAI's event on Monday exceed Manifold's expectations?
$6K63 tradersResolved
93%
In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
$5K19 tradersopen
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Will someone make a physical Manifold Countdown To AGI clock before July?
$5K17 tradersResolved
4%
When will Ilya announce where he will work next?
$5K32 tradersResolved
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When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?
$3K29 tradersResolved
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P(Doom) - Dario Amodei
$2K18 tradersResolved
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When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
$63915 tradersopen
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P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio
$47610 tradersclosed
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P(Doom) - Emmett Shear
$2237 tradersclosed
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Do you identify as EA or E/acc?
$0293 tradersResolved
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Is your P(Doom) currently between 25% and 75%? (By 2050)
$088 tradersResolved
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How exciting was OpenAI's event announcing GPT-4o?
$0172 tradersResolved
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Is your P(Doom) currently between 10% and 90%? (By 2050)
$0124 tradersResolved
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How exciting do you expect OpenAI's event on Monday to be? [Poll]
$077 tradersResolved
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