Manifold Creator
Manifold
@Manifold
Markets by Manifold
Which new AI models will be released in January 2025?
$4.3M292 tradersResolved
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Which new AI models will be released in February 2025?
$2.3M251 tradersResolved
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What will be the status of TikTok in the US on April 1st 2025?
$1.9M472 tradersResolved
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Who will win the NBA Championship 2024-2025?
$588K329 tradersResolved
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Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
$546K166 tradersResolved
0%
How much USD will be donated through Manifold for Good before June?
$452K72 tradersResolved
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What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
$247K127 tradersResolved
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2025 Australian Open - Men’s singles winner?
$244K61 tradersResolved
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Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024?
$236K895 tradersResolved
1%
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
$196K130 tradersResolved
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2025 Australian Open - Women’s singles winner?
$187K37 tradersResolved
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What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025? (old buckets)
$164K44 tradersResolved
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Who will be TIME 2024 person of the year?
$138K59 tradersResolved
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What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?
$137K51 tradersResolved
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Will we have a Messi vs Ronaldo final?
$128K73 tradersResolved
0%
China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022
$125K563 tradersResolved
97%
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
$106K34 tradersResolved
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Which new AI models will be released in December 2024?
$96K81 tradersResolved
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What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
$86K61 tradersResolved
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Who will be the most Twitter-followed user to create a market?
$74K111 tradersResolved
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Will Democrats lose their majorities in the House and Senate in 2022?
$72K165 tradersResolved
2%
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
$66K18 tradersResolved
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Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
$65K37 tradersResolved
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Will Argentina win the Fifa World Cup 22?
$61K110 tradersResolved
93%
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills (NFL)
$55K66 tradersResolved
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Will we get more total visits than PredictIt, Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi COMBINED in Dec 2023?
$54K207 tradersResolved
3%
Will England eliminate France?
$53K94 tradersResolved
30%
Will we get acquired in 2023?
$51K59 tradersResolved
1%
Will 2 or more of these 8 famous folks create a market?
$49K84 tradersResolved
100%
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
$47K20 tradersResolved
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Will Jair Bolsonaro be reelected president of Brazil?
$47K110 tradersResolved
0%
NBA Warriors vs Rockets
$46K13 tradersResolved
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Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders (NFL)
$46K50 tradersResolved
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Will Brazil eliminate South Korea?
$46K41 tradersResolved
100%
Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets (NBA)
$46K8 tradersResolved
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Will we raise a Series A in 2023?
$43K110 tradersResolved
2%
What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?
$42K22 tradersResolved
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Portland Trail Blazers vs Milwaukee Bucks (NBA)
$42K9 tradersResolved
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Will France win the Fifa World Cup 22?
$40K104 tradersResolved
7%
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
$37K25 tradersResolved
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