Manifold Creator
Magnus Hambleton
@Mag
Markets by Magnus Hambleton
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
$12K41 tradersResolved
98%
Will Andrew Ng start to take AI extinction risk seriously before 2024?
$11K73 tradersResolved
5%
Apple buys Anthropic.ai before end of 2024
$5K24 tradersResolved
4%
By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?
$4K30 tradersclosed
96%
Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset before March 2023?
$3K24 tradersResolved
2%
By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience
$3K16 tradersResolved
5%
Will Elon Musk have owned more than 10% of Twitter's stock at any time before June 1st?
$3K25 tradersResolved
1%
There will be more early stage VC rounds done in 2024 than in 2023
$2K21 tradersResolved
24%
By 2024, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.
$2K20 tradersResolved
16%
Weekly NFT trading volume will achieve a new all time high before Jan 1st 2024
$1K16 tradersResolved
97%
Will I have more than 500 twitter followers by the 1st of September?
$1K12 tradersResolved
1%
Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in February than in January, as measured by import prices.
$1K15 tradersResolved
97%
Conditional on the price of bitcoin going below $20k, will the price of bitcoin go below $10k before 2023?
$1K15 tradersResolved
4%
By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious
$1K23 tradersResolved
8%
Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset before March 2022?
$1K1 tradersResolved
1%
Will Stability AI fold by 2028?
$86015 tradersopen
83%
Weekly NFT trading volume will achieve a new all time high before Jan 1st 2023
$8489 tradersResolved
2%
Google buys Anthropic before end of 2024
$8208 tradersResolved
2%
Time to ship cargo from China to Europe more than or equal to 120 days for the last week of March
$7759 tradersResolved
7%
What will be the most common word we use for processing text with large language models?
$72529 tradersResolved
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Will global venture funding be lower in Q2 2022 than in Q2 2021?
$4907 tradersResolved
94%
By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.
$43410 tradersResolved
8%
On how many planets will there be humans, on the morning of January 1st, 2100 (GMT, earth time)?
$42412 tradersopen
—
Will I get access to DALLE2 before July 1st?
$36813 tradersResolved
7%
What will be the average yearly real GDP growth rate for the USA during 2021-2030?
$3379 tradersopen
6%
Will the Arc Browser have more than 1% global market share by the end of 2024?
$3179 tradersResolved
5%
Will links still be widely de-boosted on Twitter by July 2025?
$2455 tradersResolved
91%
Will a company be founded that equips humanoid robots with guns before May 2030?
$2438 tradersopen
65%
More than 5% of Swedish single family houses will have their own energy storage units installed by 2030
$2208 tradersopen
17%
Will we get conclusive evidence to prove that ALTO-100 performs better than placebo against Depression and/or PTSD before 2027?
$2088 tradersopen
15%
We learn that Bing Image Creator is using DALL∙E-3 before Dec 31 2023
$1635 tradersResolved
80%
China to Europe shipping times above 120 days for the week ending May 1st
$1123 tradersResolved
33%
Semiconductor shortage becomes was worse in March than in January, as measured by import prices.
$1052 tradersResolved
50%
Will Mistral fold by 2028
$985 tradersopen
28%
Will Huggingface a fold by 2028?
$703 tradersopen
30%
How many Twitter followers will I have on March 31st at midnight?
$402 tradersResolved
17%
In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023
$285 tradersopen
64%
Will Aleph Alpha fold by 2028
$101 tradersopen
45%