Manifold Creator
Lorxus PhD 🦊
@Lorxus
Markets by Lorxus PhD 🦊
What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2024-12-31?
$107K54 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 200 or less as of the indicated date?
$26K15 tradersResolved
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What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2025-12-31?
$20K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will Iarwain and Gretta publish another installment of "the prodigal sorceress" by July 1, 2024?
$15K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 223 (1/32) or less as of the indicated date?
$15K7 tradersResolved
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Will the Tontine surviving player count be 200 or less as of 2024-10-31?
$15K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a new Speaker of the House before the end of the current congressional term?
$13K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sydney win their bet with John?
$13K14 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 375 (1/19) or less as of 2023-8-20?
$13K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 357 (1/20) or less as of 2023-9-23?
$12K23 tradersResolved
0%
During which ~week will the Tontine surviving player count reach 400?
$12K16 tradersResolved
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Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2025-1-1?
$11K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 420 (1/17) or less as of 2023-6-21?
$11K22 tradersResolved
100%
Will @Lorxus, the author of this market, finish their 1st draft redistillation of the Infrabayes Sequence by 2023-07-31?
$11K10 tradersResolved
100%
Will Syzygy publish another installment of "games of no chance" by July 1, 2024?
$10K21 tradersResolved
2%
Will Israel ban Christian proselytization within 90 days?
$10K33 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 300 or less as of 2023-12-21?
$9K8 tradersResolved
0%
Will Team Fortress 2 receive a substantive update with new content by the end of 2023?
$9K36 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be another 3+-death day in Tontine this year? [M600 Subsidy]
$9K14 tradersResolved
98%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 341 (1/21) or less as of 2023-10-31?
$8K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 446 (1/16) or less as of 2023-5-18?
$8K20 tradersResolved
1%
When will the elevator at Mox be fixed? [New market]
$8K5 tradersResolved
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Will the Tontine surviving player count be 400 or less as of 2023-7-4?
$7K19 tradersResolved
1%
Will Lorxus's paper be published before 2024 or Lorxus leaves [Fox City], USA?
$7K30 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
$7K27 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 396 (1/18) or less as of 2023-7-4?
$7K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S2?
$7K10 tradersResolved
100%
Conditional on Joseph Robinette Biden being the 2024 Dem nominee for president, will Kamala Harris be his running mate?
$7K31 tradersResolved
94%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S10?
$6K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain in Diamond at the end of S2?
$6K8 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 286 (4% of start) or less as of the indicated date?
$6K5 tradersResolved
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During which ~week will the Tontine surviving player count reach 350?
$6K8 tradersResolved
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Will Lorxus receive significant money for work in AI safety, alignment, or related fields of math by the end of 2024?
$6K15 tradersResolved
97%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S9?
$5K9 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 286 (1/25) or less as of 2023-12-31?
$5K11 tradersResolved
0%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Gold at the end of S4?
$5K11 tradersResolved
100%
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be in Masters League S25 or earlier?
$5K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 300 or less as of the indicated date?
$5K6 tradersResolved
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Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip ends?
$5K45 tradersResolved
97%
[S3] Who will be promoted to Masters from Wily Gnomes?
$5K9 tradersResolved
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