Manifold Creator
Linus Tang
@LinusTang
Markets by Linus Tang
West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?
$22K50 tradersopen
4%
Will I do 1 push-up for every user with a No position after the market closes?
$9K73 tradersResolved
8%
Will the number of Yes bettors exceed a random integer in [5, 20]?
$9K33 tradersResolved
99%
Will I (Linus Tang) qualify for the 2024 IMO?
$8K44 tradersResolved
98%
First letter of the last name of USA3 of the 2024 IMO team
$6K15 tradersResolved
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Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024?
$4K22 tradersResolved
33%
First letter of the last name of USA4 of the 2024 IMO team
$4K13 tradersResolved
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Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
$4K33 tradersopen
42%
Will I (Linus Tang) qualify for the 2024 RMM?
$4K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will the record for the largest known prime be broken by the end of 2024?
$3K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will I discover that one of my friends is secretly an artificial intelligence?
$3K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will the record for the largest known Mersenne prime be broken by the end of 2024?
$3K13 tradersResolved
100%
Which category will I place in on USAMO 2024?
$3K20 tradersResolved
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Will a random integer in [0, 99] be less than my Rice Purity Score on August 17, 2024?
$2K28 tradersResolved
94%
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
$2K21 tradersopen
5%
Will Manifold *BAN* duplicate questions in 2025?
$93614 tradersResolved
1%
Will Zach Star post a comedy sketch on these number types?
$8156 tradersResolved
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Will I successfully complex bash a problem on the 2024 USAMO?
$74417 tradersResolved
12%
Will Gemini get a qualifying score on the most recent AMC 10 math competition?
$60018 tradersResolved
13%
Which category will I place in on APMO 2024?
$4668 tradersResolved
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Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?
$22110 tradersopen
13%
Will my previous market close above 60%?
$1577 tradersResolved
20%
Will my next market close below 40%?
$1517 tradersResolved
50%
What will my favorite problem on the 2024 USAMO be?
$1446 tradersResolved
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When will a team sweep IMO again?
$1319 tradersopen
65%
>30% chance there will be someone born before year ____ who lives for at least 300 years (vote smallest such number)
$051 tradersopen
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