Manifold Creator
Linch Zhang
@Linch
Markets by Linch Zhang
How many people at Manifest will contract COVID at or roughly around Manifest?
$22K46 tradersResolved
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Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?
$6K20 tradersResolved
90%
Will schools completely reopen in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa by the end of 2023?
$6K50 tradersResolved
3%
Will I reach Gold on Manifold by the End of October, ~40 days after I join?
$4K22 tradersResolved
98%
If I attend Manifest, would I have considered it a better use of my time than my counterfactual weekend?
$66126 tradersResolved
84%
If I attend EA Global Boston, will I consider it a better use of my time than the counterfactual?
$43323 tradersclosed
62%
When will daycares completely reopen in Jerusalem?
$2803 tradersclosed
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How many people attending the "End of Covid Mega-Party" would have contracted COVID at or around the party?
$2107 tradersResolved
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When will daycare restrictions mostly go away in Jerusalem?
$302 tradersclosed
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