Manifold Creator
Lily
@Lily
Markets by Lily
Who will Shohei Ohtani sign with for the 2024 season?
$35K54 tradersResolved
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Will a Texan win the 2023 National Spelling Bee?
$12K15 tradersResolved
0%
In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023?
$3K48 tradersopen
8%
Will the heir to GPT-3 be called GPT-4? (assuming it exists by 1/1/2025)
$3K16 tradersResolved
98%
Will it be possible to mute users on Manifold on November 1, 2023?
$2K10 tradersResolved
1%
will 🥺 my 🥺 jar 🥺 of 🥺 minced 🥺 garlic 🥺 be 🥺 opened 🥺 by 🥺 the 🥺 end 🥺 of 🥺 the 🥺 month 🥺 🙏🙏🙏
$96915 tradersResolved
95%
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the decline in testosterone levels over the past few decades?
$28310 tradersopen
—
If Worldcoin has a serious data security breach before July 2024, what will the cause be?
$2795 tradersResolved
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Will there be a market resolution controversy caused by the market creator not speaking English natively?
$1875 tradersResolved
89%
IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?
$17311 tradersResolved
51%
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?
$14213 tradersopen
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In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the US obesity epidemic?
$1398 tradersopen
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By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand?
$1116 tradersopen
45%
How much will it cost in dollars, including shipping to San Francisco, to buy the cheapest available Raspberry Pi 3 or 4 on March 31?
$405 tradersResolved
22%
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in autoimmune disorders over the past few decades?
$303 tradersopen
—
Will the FDA ban avobenzone, octinoxate, or oxybenzone from sunscreens before 2030?
$283 tradersopen
31%
Will the linked market ever resolve?
$233 tradersopen
38%
will I be more concerned about glyphosate than phthalates at market close?
$112 tradersResolved
42%
__koan__
$102 tradersResolved
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Help my house find a new roommate
$00 tradersopen
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will I manage to contribute to the KZG summoning ceremony during its open contribution period?
$00 tradersResolved
50%