Manifold Creator
Lars Osborne
@LarsOsborne
Markets by Lars Osborne
Will Ayatollah Kamenei Flee Iran before Feb 6 2026?
$77K188 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the next NASA Administrator?
$15K42 tradersResolved
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Will more than 1 Million People in the US protest on June 14?
$8K75 tradersResolved
91%
Insider Coinflip [read description]
$6K25 tradersResolved
57%
Will the US invade Greenland less than 2 weeks after the Winter Olympics
$6K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?
$5K54 tradersopen
73%
Will Starship flight 12 happen before New Glenn flight 3?
$5K25 tradersResolved
1%
Will Artemis II launch before Valentine's day?
$5K31 tradersResolved
1%
Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
$3K14 tradersopen
19%
Manifold adds "closest to 50%" sorting feature?
$2K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?
$2K29 tradersopen
6%
What will be the outcome of the Cards Against Humanity Lawsuit against SpaceX?
$2K17 tradersResolved
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Israel airstrikes against Iran between July 1-7?
$1K19 tradersResolved
6%
Is my filament extruder recoverable?
$9786 tradersResolved
1%
Will an AI agent send me Mana?
$92015 tradersResolved
36%
Short fuse- Does Evan have that dog in him?
$90726 tradersResolved
75%
Will Jared Issacman found a space company by the end of 2025?
$90110 tradersResolved
1%
Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)
$8169 tradersopen
2%
Will this market have a number of traders that is equal to a prime number?
$68422 tradersResolved
25%
Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?
$63511 tradersopen
7%
Will I earn Mana on this Market?
$53314 tradersResolved
59%
Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?
$50510 tradersopen
36%
When will my apartment complex's hot tub re-open?
$5035 tradersResolved
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Short fuse - Does David have that Dog in him?
$4602 tradersResolved
96%
Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027?
$4519 tradersopen
84%
Will an AI Agent contribute to my codebase?
$3568 tradersResolved
52%
Will my apartment complex's hot tub re-open tomorrow, as planned?
$32311 tradersResolved
28%
Will my apartment complex's hot tub re-open in 2025?
$29310 tradersResolved
8%
Who will be the next CEO of ULA?
$2705 tradersopen
—
Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?
$2695 tradersopen
8%
Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?
$2548 tradersopen
18%
Will the VIPER Rover land on the Moon by 2030?
$2016 tradersopen
59%
Will I injure myself this climbing season?
$1419 tradersopen
30%
Will Falcon 9 have a second in-flight Anomaly in 2026?
$553 tradersopen
29%
Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?
$501 tradersopen
10%
This market resolves to whichever side has FEWER Holders
$366 tradersResolved
48%
Will I get my 1000 mana for enabling push notifications?
$183 tradersResolved
43%
Was the Bad Bunny halftime show good
$038 tradersResolved
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Well now I feel like an idiot for repaying my loans. Anyone else?
$06 tradersResolved
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