Manifold Creator
Lars Doucet
@LarsDoucet
Markets by Lars Doucet
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
$7.8M5,504 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
$1.6M992 tradersResolved
99%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$551K352 tradersopen
20%
Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?
$157K230 tradersResolved
1%
Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
$135K489 tradersResolved
1%
Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?
$132K537 tradersResolved
2%
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2025?
$78K63 tradersResolved
99%
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$70K160 tradersopen
41%
Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?
$67K352 tradersResolved
0%
If Russia starts a new offensive in Q1 2023, within one month will they take and hold 5% more territory than they held on January 1st 2023?
$64K27 tradersResolved
0%
Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?
$60K66 tradersResolved
99%
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024?
$57K27 tradersResolved
100%
Will a significant security flaw be discovered in the WorldCoin Protocol before 2024?
$56K26 tradersResolved
100%
5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"
$53K391 tradersopen
89%
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2030?
$52K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will CGP Grey create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
$51K34 tradersResolved
100%
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?
$49K148 tradersResolved
4%
Will the New York Times write a non-negative article specifically about Georgism in 2023?
$49K74 tradersResolved
100%
On April 15th, will only verified Twitter accounts show up on users's "For You" feed?
$47K27 tradersResolved
0%
Will I be convinced the spirit of Moore's Law is dead as of January 1, 2024?
$45K177 tradersResolved
87%
Will it be shown that NYT employees' cats kill more birds annually than SpaceX launches? (Proven before 2025)
$44K78 tradersResolved
15%
Will "Yuddite" become the established term for people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before 2024?
$39K92 tradersResolved
3%
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in revoking ranked choice voting in the 2024 election?
$34K46 tradersResolved
2%
Will an AI art generator be trained that uses only public domain and Creative Commons images by the end of 2023?
$32K93 tradersResolved
2%
Will my Manifold profit be back in the green by the end of 2023?
$32K14 tradersResolved
100%
Will Wizards of the Coast succeed in revoking the "perpetual" term of the 1.0 Open Game License?
$30K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025?
$30K72 tradersclosed
85%
Will Balaji actually take anyone up on his 1BTC for $1M 90-day bet?
$30K52 tradersResolved
99%
When will Twitter actually "collapse"?
$29K186 tradersopen
—
Will it be shown that NYT employees' cats kill more ENDANGERED birds annually than SpaceX launches? (Proven before 2025)
$28K22 tradersResolved
8%
Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?
$28K261 tradersopen
55%
Will Elon Musk back out of the deal to buy Twitter (successfully or not?)
$25K168 tradersResolved
1%
Will $1M USD be worth more than 1 BTC on June 17, 2023?
$25K19 tradersResolved
100%
How many ballots will it take to decide the next speaker of the House?
$25K125 tradersResolved
99%
If the Elon Musk vs Mark Zuckerberg fight goes forward, will Zuckerberg win?
$25K81 tradersResolved
68%
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
$25K146 tradersResolved
10%
Will Bernie Sanders seek the Democratic Party's nomination for president in 2024?
$19K40 tradersResolved
0%
Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025?
$19K115 tradersResolved
2%
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2024?
$18K88 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump claim to have a solution for the existential threat of AI (but not say what it is) by the end of 2023?
$17K105 tradersResolved
3%