Manifold Creator

Kyle

@KyleY

Markets by Kyle

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?

$16K99 tradersResolved

Will living off “Huel” be shown to have negative health effects by 2026?

$3K42 tradersclosed
5%

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

$2K51 tradersopen

Government admits to tampering with Epstein prison footage by summer's end?

$2K32 tradersResolved
1%

Will another CEO be assassinated before the next 5 school shootings?

$2K60 tradersResolved
7%

If @DavidBudden uploaded something to ArXiv, will he claim it needs a revision before resolving the NS bet?

$2K24 tradersclosed
53%

When will I be able to watch a trailer for the next Half-Life game?

$1K14 tradersopen

Will there be widespread political unrest in the US in the summer of 2026 similar to summer of 2020?

$1K16 tradersopen
27%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in a war during the 2nd Trump administration?

$1K23 tradersopen
13%

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

$97021 tradersopen

Will an Israel-Hamas cease-fire occur within 2 months of the US election?

$96212 tradersResolved
1%

Will I complete Dry January?

$7259 tradersResolved
92%

Will I continue paying for ChatGPT through the summer?

$58316 tradersResolved
97%

Will pro-Palestinian college protests begin again in earnest and will Kamala Harris’s youth support decline?

$3108 tradersResolved
6%

[short fuse] Which prediction markets will be mentioned on Freakonomics?

$22514 tradersResolved

Will US cannabis legalization reverse in any state within 5 years?

$2169 tradersopen
11%

By what year will Adobe officially support Photoshop on Linux?

$1875 tradersopen

Will the first identified alien life be microscopic? [by 2030]

$1856 tradersopen
90%

Will I spend real money on Manifold by the end of the year?

$1844 tradersResolved
20%

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

$17012 tradersopen
42%

Will someone be arrested for pissing on Donald Trump’s grave before 2035?

$12811 tradersopen
28%

Next FromSoftware game?

$453 tradersResolved