Manifold Creator
Krantz
@Krantz
Markets by Krantz
Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
$38K78 tradersResolved
19%
Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)
$34K27 tradersopen
2%
Who will win the 2025 WSOP final table?
$26K17 tradersResolved
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Eliezer Yudkowsky and Robin Hanson will watch this video before Trump gets inaugurated.
$18K7 tradersResolved
3%
Who will endorse RFK before Nov 5th 2024?
$11K18 tradersResolved
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If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
$11K23 tradersopen
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Which person had the most important message to give society?
$5K22 tradersopen
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Guido's hunger strike will last at least how many days?
$5K11 tradersResolved
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Which predictions on Manifold are the most important for society (at scale) to be calibrated on?
$4K19 tradersResolved
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What position will RFK hold in the United States government on April 1st 2025?
$4K32 tradersResolved
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Who will be Time Magazine's "Person of the Decade" in 2030?
$4K14 tradersResolved
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What will be considered true about the motivations behind the cybertruck/Trump tower fireworks explosion?
$3K15 tradersclosed
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Who will win a Nobel Prize before they die?
$3K37 tradersopen
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Will Manifold users believe they have recovered from TDS in 2028?
$2K10 tradersResolved
11%
Which public figures will declare they believe aliens have been hidden by the US government?
$2K14 tradersopen
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If Elon Musk publicly endorses a presidential candidate before November, who will it be?
$2K15 tradersResolved
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Joe Rogan, Daniel Sheehan, RFK, Trump and Elon will release a podcast together for Christmas.
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
What is the egg??
$2K10 tradersopen
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What will happen on the Global Disclosure Day broadcast hosted by New Paradigm Institute?
$2K2 tradersResolved
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Will Amaryllis Fox be appointed director of the CIA?
$2K8 tradersResolved
2%
Who actually shot JFK?
$2K10 tradersResolved
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Horseshoe Indianapolis Casino Dealer Union Strike - PROP BETS
$1K3 tradersResolved
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Will RFK be allowed to participate in any presidential debate alongside Trump or Harris? (2024)
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.
$1K12 tradersopen
19%
Will astroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
$1K12 tradersopen
2%
Artificial superintelligence will 'peacefully take control of humanity' before what year?
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Which podcast/lectures will I believe have the most important information and wisdom for society to understand?
$1K3 tradersResolved
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Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
$1K11 tradersopen
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How high will XRP go before it crashes?
$1K5 tradersResolved
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Orion will be released to the public on December 25th 2024.
$9566 tradersResolved
2%
There will be a scandal involving the 2024 WSOP winner using a colluding rail partner using a solver.
$9003 tradersResolved
99%
The random integer between 10,000 and 99,999 will be.
$8885 tradersResolved
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If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
$86819 tradersopen
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The random integer between 10,000 and 99,999 will be.
$82011 tradersResolved
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The following individuals will like at least 50 of my posts on X. (Reposts count as 10)
$8012 tradersResolved
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Hot fuse: There will be a commercial during the superbowl about Steven Spielberg's new movie 'disclosure'.
$7196 tradersResolved
5%
"Age of Disclosure" Documentary : Prop Bets
$6856 tradersResolved
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Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [Add Answers]
$5758 tradersResolved
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By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?
$5004 tradersopen
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Hot fuse: There will be a mass UAP/plasmoid sighting in New York Time Square as the ball drops.
$4666 tradersResolved
8%