Manifold Creator
Kevin Roose
@KevinRoose
Markets by Kevin Roose
Will there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
$3K17 tradersopen
13%
Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?
$1K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will Apple name an outside CEO to replace Tim Cook in 2026?
$1K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will at least 5 democratic countries other than Australia ban social media for kids under 16 by the end of 2026?
$27010 tradersopen
40%
Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?
$2086 tradersopen
12%
Will 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
$1557 tradersopen
72%