Manifold Creator
Joshua
@Joshua
Markets by Joshua
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
$10.3M995 tradersopen
96%
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?
$2.9M1,886 tradersResolved
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Who will be TIME's Person of the Year 2023?
$2.7M1,935 tradersResolved
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Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
$641K433 tradersResolved
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Who will be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?
$567K371 tradersResolved
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Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
$476K1,197 tradersResolved
49%
Manifest 2025 Prop Bets
$449K348 tradersResolved
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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
$447K103 tradersopen
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Who will be Time Person of the Year 2023?
$436K385 tradersResolved
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Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
$401K440 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?
$361K598 tradersResolved
0%
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
$289K391 tradersResolved
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Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead?
$285K544 tradersResolved
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Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
$281K194 tradersResolved
33%
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
$250K515 tradersResolved
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Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
$242K21 tradersResolved
1%
[Short Fuse] Is King Charles either dead or announcing his abdication?
$231K100 tradersResolved
0%
What is true about the "Serious National Security threat" that House Intel Chair Mike Turner is asking to declassify?
$221K361 tradersResolved
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Will video evidence that Epstein killed himself be released before 2026?
$217K225 tradersResolved
94%
Who will win Masters League Season 14 (June)?
$212K28 tradersResolved
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Prop Bets on Love
$192K258 tradersResolved
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How will Biden's first post-debate press conference go on Thursday?
$187K257 tradersResolved
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[Finalists Only] Who will be the TIME Person of the Year 2023?
$180K178 tradersResolved
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Will either major party have a Brokered Convention in 2024?
$150K89 tradersResolved
1%
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
$150K308 tradersResolved
1%
I will resolve this market NO at the end of July unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES (Hard Mode)
$138K103 tradersResolved
2%
Why did Andrej Karpathy leave OpenAI?
$129K173 tradersResolved
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Who will appear on "Manifold: Live!", our weekly show for the Manifold Community Fund initiative?
$120K50 tradersResolved
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Will Nothing Ever Happen By Halloween?
$119K236 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a US government shutdown before March 15th?
$116K251 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
$115K190 tradersopen
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What will be the 10 Merriam-Webster 2023 Words of The Year? [Unlinked Free Response]
$108K56 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Biden say "Fuck" on camera before April 1st?
$108K50 tradersResolved
0%
Will Manifold be mentioned in the New York Times before Oct 10th?
$106K92 tradersResolved
100%
Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?
$103K118 tradersResolved
1%
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
$102K112 tradersResolved
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Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
$100K168 tradersResolved
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Approval Voting: Which living AI-related person is the Lisan A.I. Gaib?
$94K131 tradersResolved
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Will Nothing Ever Happen? [Permanent - Monthly Resolution]
$90K189 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Biden die before Saturday?
$89K50 tradersResolved
1%