Manifold Creator
Josh
@JoshYou
Markets by Josh
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?
$110K94 tradersResolved
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When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
$99K125 tradersResolved
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Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
$35K60 tradersopen
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In which quarter will Claude 4 be released?
$20K57 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI release GPT-5.1 in 2025?
$20K59 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic's next model be Claude 3.8 or Claude 4?
$16K76 tradersResolved
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How much solar power will the world install in 2025?
$14K22 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI be valued at $600B by mid-2026?
$13K47 tradersResolved
96%
How many paid Waymo rides per week at the end of 2025?
$13K25 tradersResolved
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Anthropic annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?
$13K38 tradersopen
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Will OpenAI reach a valuation of $300B by mid-2026?
$12K45 tradersResolved
95%
How many parameters does Grok 3 have?
$6K11 tradersopen
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OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?
$6K26 tradersopen
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Will Anthropic reach $4B annualized revenue by end of 2025?
$5K22 tradersResolved
88%
How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?
$4K23 tradersopen
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How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2025?
$4K11 tradersResolved
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How many US metro areas will Waymo serve at the end of 2025?
$4K16 tradersResolved
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Will Joe Weisenthal's ice maker still work in six months?
$4K17 tradersResolved
94%
How many Waymo rides per week at end of 2026?
$4K18 tradersopen
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Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025?
$4K27 tradersResolved
79%
How many Waymo robotaxis deployed at the end of 2026?
$3K15 tradersopen
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How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at EOY 2027?
$3K9 tradersopen
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When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
$2K13 tradersopen
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Max (Anthropic, OpenAI annualized revenue run rate) at end of 2027?
$2K12 tradersopen
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When will Google or OpenAI next release a frontier model?
$2K10 tradersResolved
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Largest company end of 2028?
$2K20 tradersopen
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How many Waymo robotaxis at the end of 2027?
$2K7 tradersopen
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How much will one million o3 output tokens cost?
$1K15 tradersResolved
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How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?
$1K7 tradersopen
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How much solar power will the world install in 2027?
$1K10 tradersopen
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How much enhanced geothermal power in the US by 2030?
$7036 tradersopen
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How much new or reopened US nuclear capacity by 2032?
$5786 tradersopen
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How many US nuclear reactors will reopen by 2030?
$57310 tradersopen
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Will Waymo hit __ rides per week in 2027?
$2992 tradersopen
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How much small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) capacity in US by 2035?
$2195 tradersopen
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Will Waymo hit __ rides per week in 2026?
$2107 tradersopen
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